Alabama vs. Texas A&M score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Alabama vs. Texas A&M in this Week 6 college football game

The last time Alabama played out at Kyle Field, it was as the No. 1 team in college football, and it was a loss. This time around, the Crimson Tide are far from the best team in the country, but are still SEC West contenders, as is Texas A&M, which is 4-1 coming into this Week 6 college football game on Saturday.

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What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 6 game.

Alabama vs. Texas A&M predictions

Alabama vs. Texas A&M predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

That's where it gets complicated. The simulations technically forecast that Alabama and Texas A&M will tie the game 25 to 25. 

But the system's projected margin suggests the Crimson Tide has a 0.6 point advantage in the game and has a close 51 percent chance to win outright. 

Rounding up, that suggests Alabama is favored by 1 over the Aggies.

Point spread

Alabama is a 2.5 point favorite against Texas A&M, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take Texas A&M +2.5, bet Alabama on the moneyline at -133, and take the over.

Computer predictions

Other analytic models also favor Alabama in the game. 

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that simulates games 20,000 times to pick straight-up winners using a wide variety of data points.

The index forecasts Alabama to win the game in 61.1 percent of its simulations, or 12,220 of the 20,000 projections. A&M wins in 32.4% of mocks, or 6,480 of the sims.

Where the bets are

63 percent of bettors believe Alabama will win and cover the 6.5 point spread.

The other 37 percent of wagers pick Texas A&M to upset or cover the line in a loss.

Total bettors are almost evenly split, as 51% of bets say the game will go under 46.5 points, while 49% of bettors predict it will go over.

Betting trends

A&M is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.

Tide is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games.

Aggies are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games.

Total went over in 4 of Alabama's last 5 on the road at Texas A&M.

A&M is 5-0 in its last 5 games in Week 6.

Bama is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games in Week 6.

Total went over in 4 of Aggies' last 5 at home vs. Alabama

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Alabama at Texas A&M schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 7
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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