Auburn vs. Texas A&M game preview, prediction

What to expect as Auburn and Texas A&M meet in the SEC opener as the Week 4 college football schedule kicks off along with our game prediction

Amid an action-packed weekend with six games between ranked teams on the same field, an SEC West battle between unranked rivals could carry equal weight long-term as Auburn visits Texas A&M in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

Auburn is looking for its first 4-0 start since the 2019 season as first-year head coach Hugh Freeze has the Tigers perfect through three games, including a win over Cal two weeks ago behind an offense posting 428 yards per game. 

Jimbo Fisher is still looking to turn things around at A&M as rumors linger about his job security and that massive contract, as the Aggies sit at 2-1 following a 48-33 loss at Miami two weeks ago, but boasting game-changing talent on both sides of the ball.

What can you expect from the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as Auburn and Texas A&M meet in this SEC West clash, along with our final game prediction.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M preview, prediction

Auburn vs. Texas A&M picks, predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 23
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Auburn vs. Texas A&M game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Texas A&M -8.5
Total: 51.5 points
Moneyline: AUB +240 | A&M -330
FPI pick: Texas A&M 67.2% to win

What to watch for

Auburn and Texas A&M meet in Week 4 / USA Today Images

1. Third down battle. A&M has allowed teams to convert on only 7 third down plays out of 34 total attempts through three games, ranking third nationally with a 20.6 percent conversion rate on defense. Auburn has fared well on third downs defensively, ranking right behind at 4th in the country with a 24.4 percent rate on defense, allowing 10 conversions on 41 attempts. If Auburn wants to move the chains offensively, it'll probably be on the ground where it ranks 18th with 216 ground yards per game, compared to an air attack that's 89th with 212 ypg and 5 TDs so far.

2. A&M's big plays. The Aggies average a shade over 18 plays of 10 yards or more per game this season as the offense places a premium of moving the ball through the air. Conner Weigman is 10th nationally with 303 passing yards per game and goes against an Auburn defense that's 12th in football allowing 155 yards in the air each time out, but is dealing with injury-induced absences in the corners.

3. First SEC test. Texas A&M's defense is still a work in progress. The unit allowed 374 yards and 5 passing touchdowns against Miami and it struggled to build a consistent pass rush in that game, a worrying preview of what may come once the SEC schedule begins in earnest. Auburn's air game is a relative weakness, so any prolonged struggle on the Aggies' part to control those throwing lanes could spell more issues to come.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M prediction

It'll be a strength-on-strength battle as Texas A&M's rushing defense goes up against Auburn's ground game, and the Aggies' second-level tacklers should have an edge against Payton Thorne's attempts to throw deep. Weigman and the Ags' receivers have the clear advantage when it comes to putting the ball in the air past the Auburn coverages, provided they can adequately protect the quarterback.

College Football HQ predicts...

• Texas A&M wins 31-21
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More: Auburn vs. Texas A&M score prediction by college football computer models

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