Auburn vs. Texas A&M score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Auburn vs. Texas A&M in this Week 4 college football game

This weekend brings us a key matchup in the SEC West between two teams looking to make statements on the field as Auburn brings its perfect record into the Lone Star State against 2-1 Texas A&M in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

First-year head coach Hugh Freeze has Auburn at 3-0 up to now with wins over UMass, Samford, and a road win against Pac-12 foe Cal, scoring over 40 points in two of those games and averaging 428 yards per game behind a balanced attack that is gaining more than 215 yards on the ground each time out.

Texas A&M rebounded from a 15-point loss at Miami with a big win over UL Monroe coming into the SEC opener, relying more so on the passing game with Conner Weigman posting 337 yards per game in the air but playing some strong run defense, allowing under 100 yards from opponents.

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 4 game.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M predictions

Auburn vs. Texas A&M picks, best bets / USA Today Images

Score prediction: The SP+ models favor the Aggies to win at home in 65 percent of simulations, and to defeat Auburn by a projected score of 28 to 21, with a forecasted 6.9 point margin of victory in the game.

Point spread: That would not be enough to cover the spread, as Texas A&M comes into the game as 8.5 point favorites against Auburn, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, and coming in under the total set at 51.5 points by SI.

FPI prediction: College Football Power Index, another computer predictive system, forecasts that Texas A&M wins the game in 67.2 percent of simulations, according to the model that replicates the game 20,000 times to pick winners.

Where the bets are: The spread consensus pick sides with Auburn as 7.5 point underdogs with 59 percent of bettors making that selection, compared with 41 percent of wagers going with the Aggies to win and cover.

Betting trends: Auburn is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games in September... Tigers are 1-6 SU in their last 6 road games... Total went over in 7 of Auburn's last 10 games... Texas A&M is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games as the favorite... The over hit in 6 of A&M's last 9 games and 4 of its last 5 SEC games.

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Auburn vs. Texas A&M schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 23
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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