College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 3 games

Locking in our predictions against the spread with some intriguing college football games on the schedule for Week 3 this weekend

James Parks | Sep 16, 2023

College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 3 games /

Last week was a little tough for us around here as we went below .500 in our picks against the spread, thanks in part to Texas' upset over Alabama and some late turnovers in the Oregon and Ole Miss games that went the wrong way. But our heads are still above water coming into college football's Week 3 action as we lean into our next crop of ATS predictions.

How are we doing? College Football HQ is 12-9 (.571) against the spread so far this season. Let's see if we can scratch any value out of this weekend's games.

Lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Colorado State at Colorado

Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders attempts a pass during a college football game. — USA Today Images

Line: Colorado -23.5

The word: If the Prime experience is eventually going to come back down to earth, it will probably be against Oregon or USC, not so much against the Rams, who allowed 466 air yards against Washington State and who line up against a Buffaloes attack which is just plain good and loaded with dynamic skill threats. The home game, at night, with GameDay on site is all the hype Deion could ask for.

ATS pick: Colorado -23.5

Washington at Michigan State

Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze on a pass during a college football game. — USA Today Images

Line: Washington -16.5

The word: The big story here is of course that Mel Tucker will be suspended amid some shocking sexual harassment allegations around the MSU coach, but Washington was always the favorite here anyway. Michael Penix and his two elite targets lead college football in passing production and should churn out yardage against a Spartan secondary that has been a problem for two seasons.

ATS pick: Washington -16.5

Penn State at Illinois

Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith catches a pass during a college football game. — USA Today Images

Line: Penn State -14.5

The word: Illinois will get some stops at the line when defending against the run but the secondary is a liability against competent downfield passers, and that's what Drew Allar appears to be. With the sophomore spreading the field, Penn State's backs should be able to navigate the Illini's inside tacklers and create plays on the outside.

ATS pick: Penn State -14.5

LSU at Mississippi State

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers looks downfield on a pass attempt during a college football game. — USA Today Images

Line: LSU -9.5

The word: The Air Raid has been grounded as the Bulldogs embrace a more physical, ground-based approach on offense and a lot more play-action from Will Rogers. But the quarterback still has the arm to test LSU in the corners and has the targets who can get some serious yards after the catch. LSU wins this game, but close enough for there to be questions.

ATS pick: Mississippi State +9.5

South Carolina at Georgia

Georgia Bulldogs running back Cash Jones on a rushing attempt during a college football game in the SEC. — USA Today Images

Line: Georgia -27.5

The word: The Gamecocks are an enigma on offense, working behind a woeful line that has allowed 10 sacks and paving the way for backs who are averaging 1.5 yards per carry. Georgia's front seven will make hay while the sun shines against that protection, but Spencer Rattler is still an 83 percent passer through it all and he has a solid target in Xavier Legette, who leads the SEC in receiving yards per game. And there are still valid questions around whether Carson Beck and especially the Bulldogs' own ground game can take full advantage, but between the two, this is the offense that will be in scoring position more often than the reverse.

ATS pick: South Carolina +27.5

Tennessee at Florida

Tennessee Volunteers running back Jabari Small on a carry during a college football game in the SEC. — USA Today Images

Line: Tennessee -6.5

The word: Florida has the bodies to grind out some solid yards on the ground and Graham Mertz should get a few past a Vols secondary that was weak a year ago, but Joe Milton has more options to work with, a bigger arm to connect with those receivers, and arguably the superior rushing attack. History weighs heavily on this matchup, as UT hasn't won in the Swamp since 2003. That's a tough crowd to play in front of.

ATS pick: Florida +6.5

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Published Sep 16, 2023

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.