College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 3 games
Last week was a little tough for us around here as we went below .500 in our picks against the spread, thanks in part to Texas' upset over Alabama and some late turnovers in the Oregon and Ole Miss games that went the wrong way. But our heads are still above water coming into college football's Week 3 action as we lean into our next crop of ATS predictions.
How are we doing? College Football HQ is 12-9 (.571) against the spread so far this season. Let's see if we can scratch any value out of this weekend's games.
Lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Colorado State at Colorado
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Line: Colorado -23.5
The word: If the Prime experience is eventually going to come back down to earth, it will probably be against Oregon or USC, not so much against the Rams, who allowed 466 air yards against Washington State and who line up against a Buffaloes attack which is just plain good and loaded with dynamic skill threats. The home game, at night, with GameDay on site is all the hype Deion could ask for.
ATS pick: Colorado -23.5
Washington at Michigan State
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Line: Washington -16.5
The word: The big story here is of course that Mel Tucker will be suspended amid some shocking sexual harassment allegations around the MSU coach, but Washington was always the favorite here anyway. Michael Penix and his two elite targets lead college football in passing production and should churn out yardage against a Spartan secondary that has been a problem for two seasons.
ATS pick: Washington -16.5
Penn State at Illinois
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Line: Penn State -14.5
The word: Illinois will get some stops at the line when defending against the run but the secondary is a liability against competent downfield passers, and that's what Drew Allar appears to be. With the sophomore spreading the field, Penn State's backs should be able to navigate the Illini's inside tacklers and create plays on the outside.
ATS pick: Penn State -14.5
Related: Penn State vs. Illinois game prediction, preview
LSU at Mississippi State
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Line: LSU -9.5
The word: The Air Raid has been grounded as the Bulldogs embrace a more physical, ground-based approach on offense and a lot more play-action from Will Rogers. But the quarterback still has the arm to test LSU in the corners and has the targets who can get some serious yards after the catch. LSU wins this game, but close enough for there to be questions.
ATS pick: Mississippi State +9.5
Related: LSU vs. Mississippi State prediction, preview
South Carolina at Georgia
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Line: Georgia -27.5
The word: The Gamecocks are an enigma on offense, working behind a woeful line that has allowed 10 sacks and paving the way for backs who are averaging 1.5 yards per carry. Georgia's front seven will make hay while the sun shines against that protection, but Spencer Rattler is still an 83 percent passer through it all and he has a solid target in Xavier Legette, who leads the SEC in receiving yards per game. And there are still valid questions around whether Carson Beck and especially the Bulldogs' own ground game can take full advantage, but between the two, this is the offense that will be in scoring position more often than the reverse.
ATS pick: South Carolina +27.5
Related: Georgia vs. South Carolina prediction, preview
Tennessee at Florida
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Line: Tennessee -6.5
The word: Florida has the bodies to grind out some solid yards on the ground and Graham Mertz should get a few past a Vols secondary that was weak a year ago, but Joe Milton has more options to work with, a bigger arm to connect with those receivers, and arguably the superior rushing attack. History weighs heavily on this matchup, as UT hasn't won in the Swamp since 2003. That's a tough crowd to play in front of.
ATS pick: Florida +6.5
Related: Tennessee vs. Florida prediction, preview
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