Florida vs. Tennessee game preview, prediction
One of the SEC's oldest rivalries takes center stage this weekend in a battle of East Division teams facing off in the SEC conference opener as undefeated and No. 11 Tennessee goes on the road into Florida in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.
Tennessee is perfect through two games following wins over Virginia and Austin Peay and posting 478 yards per game in the meantime. Florida dropped the opener at Utah before routing McNeese State coming into this game, averaging 453 total yards each time out.
What do you need to know about the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as Tennessee and Florida square off along with our Week 3 game predictions.
Tennessee vs. Florida prediction, preview
Florida vs. Tennessee highlights college football's Week 3 action
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How to watch
When: Sat., Sept. 16
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
Tennessee vs. Florida odds
Courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Tennessee -5.5
Total: 58.5 points
ML: UT -250 | UF +188
FPI pick: Tennessee | 54.1%
Related: Vols vs. Gators picks, predictions from the wiseguys in the analytics department
What to watch for
Florida vs. Tennessee predictions
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1. Vols on the ground. Tennessee wants to present a credible running threat as an equal complement to Joe Milton's big-arm ability and so far the results are coming in well enough. Tennessee leads the SEC with 257.5 rushing yards per game on average, a figure that also ranks fourth nationally. Predictably, Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small are the top options, though notably neither have scored a touchdown yet. Wright averages 9.3 ypc and Small 6.2, with Dylan Sampson emerging as the top scoring option so far, with 3 TD runs. Florida's run stop averages 151 rush yards per game allowed behind a physical interior rushing combination.
2. Testing the UT secondary. The early returns on Graham Mertz are about as expected. Florida's transfer quarterback is efficient, good for 74% of his passes for 526 yards, but not showing off, with only 2 TD passes. Ricky Pearsall is by far his biggest target, posting over 200 yards while his 2nd best, Marcus Burke, has only 61. Tennessee played sloppy pass defense a year ago, ranking 121st nationally in that category. The Gators have some athletes to throw at the back seven, but will the line give Mertz time to make those connections going against the Volunteers' agile edge rushers?
3. Gators' triumvirate. Florida wants to take pressure off quarterback Graham Mertz by squeezing everything it can from its backs. Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne have potential, both averaging around 6 yards per carry and they have 3 of the team's 6 rushing touchdowns. Treyaun Webb is an emergent threat, scoring twice off 15 carries. They'll have a time against the Vols front seven, a dominant combination that leads the nation with 12.5 tackles for loss, and is tied for 2nd nationally with 5.5 sacks per game and 11 overall.
Florida vs. Tennessee prediction
Florida has the pieces to burn some clock and maintain possession with its three-headed backfield and will find enough throwing lanes behind the Vols' second-level tacklers to keep this close. And the Gators' front seven will clog up those A and B gaps a little better than Tennessee's earlier opponents have, throwing the run game into neutral at times.
But the Vols have more credible receiving options who can create space in the middle third of the field, adding the needed second dimension that Florida may not be able to match down the stretch as Mertz is yet to really click with his receivers or show the big-arm potential Milton brings that can change the game in one or two plays.
College Football HQ picks...
- Tennessee wins, 27-21
- Covers the spread
- And hits the under
Related: Florida vs. Tennessee score prediction by college football computer model
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