Florida vs. Tennessee score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Florida vs. Tennessee in this Week 3 college football rivalry game and the SEC conference opener for both teams

A historic SEC rivalry kicks off the conference schedule this weekend with one team looking to avoid falling under .500 and another looking to preserve its perfect record as Florida and Tennessee square off in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Big Orange comes in at 2-0 on the year following victories over Virginia and Austin Peay, although the team's performance last week against the Governors left something to be desired as the offense struggled early on. Joe Milton is a 67 percent passer with seven all-purpose touchdowns, leading an attack that averages 478 yards per game and is particularly strong against the run, allowing 87 yards.

Florida dropped a 24-11 decision at Utah in the season opener but rebounded with a 49-7 thrashing of McNeese State the following week as the Gator backs pounded for 327 yards. Transfer quarterback Graham Mertz has been a stabilizing force, completing 74 percent of his throws with one turnover and three all-purpose touchdowns.

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 3 game.

Florida vs. Tennessee predictions

Tennessee vs. Florida in Week 3 action / USA Today Images

Score prediction: Expect a close game in the Swamp, with the SP+ model predicting Tennessee has a 68 percent chance to win outright, by a projected scoring margin of 8 points, and by an estimated score of 33 to 25, likely enough to cover the spread.

Point spread: Tennessee comes into the game as 5.5 point favorites against Florida, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. (Track it live)

FPI prediction: College Football Power Index, another computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating games 20,000 times, projects that Tennessee is a narrow favorite with a 53.8 percent chance to win the game, compared to Florida, which has a 46.2 percent shot to defend home field and pull off the upset.

Related: Tennessee vs. Florida picks, predictions

Where the bets are: The spread consensus pick is going with Tennessee, as 59 percent of bettors predict the Vols will cover the 5.5 point spread, and 41 percent of bets forecasting the Gators will cover at +5.5 in the game.

Betting trends: Vols are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games... Total went over in 13 of UT's last 20 games... UT is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 against Florida... Gators are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games... Total went under in 4 of UF's last 6 games... Florida is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 against SEC opponents.

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Florida vs. Tennessee schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 16
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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