College football playoffology: Predicting surprise CFP teams in 2023

Predicting which teams can break the mold and contend for the College Football Playoff

James Parks | Aug 22, 2023

College football playoffology: Predicting surprise CFP teams in 2023 /

College football remains a top-heavy sport, which means most of the teams on the field don't have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. That probability will improve after this season when the College Football Playoff is set to expand from four to 12 teams in the 2024 season. But until then, it's an exclusive club.

To date, 22 of the 36 CFP spots have been taken by either Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, or Oklahoma, or 61 percent of the playoff bids all-time. Of the 14 schools that have qualified for the playoff, a full 50 percent of those have made the semifinal just once and two others, Notre Dame and Michigan, have made it twice.

And after watching TCU make the jump into the ranks of the College Football Playoff elect, taking the world by surprise in Sonny Dykes' first season as head coach, it's not anywhere out of the ordinary to see a team no one expects to make it.

College Football Playoffology: Predicting Surprise CFP Teams in 2023

As the season draws closer, College Football HQ projects the 10 teams that could shock the world in 2023

Wisconsin

Where Wisconsin was: 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten), def. Oklahoma State in Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Wisconsin preseason ranking: No. 19

Where Wisconsin is now: Expect to see a different Badgers team than we have in recent memory after the addition of head coach Luke Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo. They brought on transfers in quarterback Tanner Mordecai and receivers Bryson Green and C.J. Williams to open this offense up and spread Big Ten defenses out more than they're accustomed to. Wisconsin plays a winnable schedule, too, but with notable games at Washington State early in the year, and gets Ohio State at home in late October, the two statement games on this slate that will prove if the Badgers belong in the conversation.

Notre Dame

Where Notre Dame was: 9-4, def. South Carolina in the Gator Bowl

Notre Dame's preseason ranking: No. 13

Where Notre Dame is now: No quarterback in ACC history has thrown more touchdowns than Sam Hartman, and now he's in blue and gold after a bombshell transfer. He inherits one of college football's best offensive line groups and a gifted running back rotation, but we'll see if the Irish can develop its nascent receiver skill. ND plays NC State and Clemson on the road and hosts USC and Ohio State, four perfect chances to show it belongs in the College Football Playoff hunt, and now equipped with a quarterback who can legitimately test those defenses.

Oklahoma

Where Oklahoma was: 6-7 (3-6 Big 12), lost to Florida State in the Cheez-It Bowl

Oklahoma's preseason ranking: No. 20

Where Oklahoma is now: Brent Venables finished with OU's first losing record since 1998 in his debut season and went to work taking a scalpel to his team's underwhelming defense this offseason. Oklahoma signed five D-linemen and edge pieces including ends Trace Ford and Dasan McCullough and signed two five-star recruits: safety Peyton Bowen and edge rusher Adepoju Adebawore, both of whom could get important snaps right away.

OU will once again have the services of quarterback Dillon Gabriel — 25 TDs, 6 INTs in 2022 — and credible receiving threats like Jalil Farooq and Drake Stoops — 8 rec TDs combined — in addition to underrated transfer wideout Andrel Anthony from Michigan and tight end Austin Stogner. Jovantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk both went over 100 yards rushing in the bowl game and back Marcus Major — who scored four times — will return, as well.

Texas

Where Texas was: 8-5 (6-3 Big 12), lost to Washington in the Alamo Bowl

Texas' preseason ranking: No. 11

Where Texas is now: "Back" might be a stale joke at this point, but it's safe to say the Longhorns are in position to move forward in 2023. They return plenty of starters on offense including Quinn Ewers at quarterback and all five of his blockers. Bijan Robinson is gone, but Ewers has a full complement of receivers to open things up, including transfer AD Mitchell from Georgia, enough to make this one of the more compelling offensive attacks in college football this year.

Penn State

Where Penn State was: 11-2 (7-2 Big Ten), def. Utah in the Rose Bowl

Penn State's preseason ranking: No. 7

Where Penn State is now: After a sluggish effort against top 10 teams under James Franklin, the Nittany Lions looked elite against Utah in their Rose Bowl victory. And they returns the bulk of a roster that should take an important step forward in Big Ten play in 2023.

It has one of the nation's premier running back groups, an offensive line with potential and Olu Fashanu back at tackle, a skilled defensive rotation that returns three proven linebackers, and a could-be phenom in transfer receiver Dante Cephas. Drew Allar, a 5-star recruit a year ago, steps in at quarterback with plenty of help around him, but this program needs to show it belongs on the same field as Ohio State and Michigan.

Washington

Where Washington was: 11-2 (7-2 Pac-12), def. Texas in the Alamo Bowl

Washington's preseason ranking: No. 10

Where Washington is now: Michael Penix and Kalen DeBoer were nothing short of a godsend for the Huskies' offense last season. Penix led college football nationally with 4,354 yards passing and adding 29 touchdowns in the air, the single most important part of Washington's huge turnaround last season.

UW returns one of the nation's best receiver rooms with Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze back following a combined 2,243 yards and 16 touchdowns of production last season while transfers Germie Bernard and tight end Josh Cuevas help out, too. Washington has a slightly harder schedule in 2023, going to USC, Michigan State, and an improved Oregon State.

Oregon

Where Oregon was: 10-3 (7-2 Pac-12), def. North Carolina in Holiday Bowl

Oregon's preseason ranking: No. 15

Where Oregon is now: Bo Nix burst onto the scene last season as a transfer, scoring 43 all-purpose touchdowns and finishing top 10 in passer rating and completion pct. He lost four starters on the line, but Oregon added two key transfers in Junior Angilau and Ajani Cornelius, while the Ducks return 71 percent of their rushing production and signed transfer receiver Traeshon Holden to keep this offense at par for 2023.

LSU

LSU Tigers running back John Emery, Jr. on a carry during a college football game in the SEC. — USA Today Images

Where LSU was: 10-4 (6-2 SEC), SEC West champion, def. Purdue in the Citrus Bowl

LSU's preseason ranking: No. 5

Where LSU is now: The surprise division champs return the bulk of their production in 2023, including quarterback Jayden Daniels, also the team's leading rusher, all of their offensive line, an agile receiver corps, and a solid running back group. Not to mention two elite defensive pieces in linebacker Harold Perkins and edge rusher Maason Smith, who will be back after his injury-shortened 2022 effort.

But it's a tough schedule for LSU this time around, opening against Florida State in Orlando and going to Mississippi State two weeks later. Arkansas and a trip to Ole Miss follow and there's a crucial date on the road at Alabama in early November.

Florida State

Where Florida State was: 10-3 (5-3 ACC), def. Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl

Florida State's preseason ranking: No. 8

Where Florida State is now: Mike Norvell has steadily built this roster through a combination of transfers and recruits and is starting to see the profit from that work, coming into 2023 as one of the ACC's most talented groups overall.

Jordan Travis returns at quarterback as a Heisman hopeful, and he'll get help from a proven running back rotation led by Trey Benson and three returning receivers, while defensively the return of edge rusher Jared Verse and the incoming transfer of cornerback Fentrell Cypress are major advantages. LSU and Clemson are two crucial early games that will set the tone for the Seminoles' season.

USC

USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner as the best player in college football. — USA Today Images

Where USC was: 11-3 (8-1 Pac-12), Pac-12 runner-up, lost to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl

USC's preseason ranking: No. 6

Where USC is now: Caleb Williams is the foundation of the Trojans' elite attack, leading the team with 10 rushing touchdowns while posting over 4,500 yards passing with 42 scores in the air as the Heisman Trophy winner in 2022. His return puts USC directly into College Football Playoff contention again, as do several of the skill pieces around him: most notably transfer receiver Dorian Singer, the Pac-12's most prodigious target last fall with over 1,100 yards and six touchdowns.

But the question around USC is its defense, or lack thereof. Alex Grinch returns as coordinator, but needs to do major surgery to the unit so it doesn't ruin this team's chance again this season. The defense was replete with missed tackles and blown coverages and ultimately doomed what was a real shot at the College Football Playoff in Lincoln Riley's first year.

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Published Aug 22, 2023

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.