Florida vs. Utah picks, predictions: Week 1 college football odds, betting lines by computer model

Week 1 game picks and predictions for Florida vs. Utah as the 2023 college football season opens up on Thursday, August 31

James Parks | Aug 31, 2023

Florida vs. Utah picks, predictions: Week 1 college football odds, betting lines by computer model /

The offseason is over and the 2023 college football schedule kicks off for real on Thursday as Florida and Utah meet up in a rematch of last season's opener as the SEC hopeful squares off against the two-time defending Pac-12 champions.

All eyes are on the quarterback position for both teams: Florida plans to debut Graham Mertz, the veteran Wisconsin transfer who brings plenty of experience if not that many stats that jump off the page, while Utah has officially listed Cameron Rising as QB1 for the game, but there are questions around whether he has fully recovered from the ACL tear he suffered in the Rose Bowl.

Florida won the first meeting with Utah by a 29-26 count to open last season. Rising had 216 yards and a touchdown with an interception in that game and rushed for 91 yards on seven carries, en route to a 3,000-plus yard campaign last fall. The Gators lose important pieces from that game, including quarterback Anthony Richardson, but should still present a unified front running the ball and play a strong defensive game near the line.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Florida vs. Utah game picks, predictions

Utah Utes quarterback Cameron Rising attempts a pass during a college football game. — Florida vs. Utah game picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Utah's chance of victory: The power index computers are siding squarely with the home team, as Utah has the comfortable 73.3 percent chance to defeat Florida in the opener, according to the model that simulates teams' seasons 20,000 times.

Florida's chance of victory: That leaves visiting Florida with the 26.7 percent shot to pull off the upset, according to the FPI computer.

Point spread: Utah comes into the matchup as close 4.5 point favorites at home against Florida, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: 44.5 points

Moneyline: Florida +150 | Utah -200

Florida vs. Utah schedule

When: Thurs., Aug. 31
Time: 8 p.m. ET, 6 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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