Florida vs. Kentucky picks, predictions: Week 5 college football game odds, lines

Expert predictions for Florida vs. Kentucky by the analytic computer models that pick college football games

This weekend brings us an SEC East matchup from Kroger Field as No. 22 Florida travels to unranked Kentucky in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Florida boasts a win over a ranked Tennessee team, enough to propel the Gators into the polls the last two weeks, but Kentucky comes in at 4-0 on the year, still not enough to earn the votes to qualify for the top 25 rankings a month into the season.

Kentucky sits at the No. 2 position in the SEC East standings, just ahead of No. 3 Florida, and both coming in at 1-0 in conference play thus far; UK took down Vanderbilt last week, and the Gators' 13-point win over the Vols.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Florida vs. Kentucky picks, predictions

Florida vs. Kentucky picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Kentucky odds: The home side comes in as the favorite, with the computer models projecting the Wildcats will win with 52 percent likelihood, according to the analytics that simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Florida odds: That leaves the Gators winning the game in the remaining 48 percent of the simulations, or 9,600 of the 20,000 projections.

Point spread: Kentucky is also the favorite on the books, as the Wildcats come in 1 point favorites against Florida, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 43.5 points.

Kentucky predictions: The Wildcats moved up 4 spots on the index's 133 team rankings, projected to be 7.2 points better than an average team, and estimated to win 7.1 games this season.

Florida predictions: Projected to win 6.5 games this season by the index, the Gators are projected to be 9.1 points better than an average team, good for 31st nationally.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not strictly in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Ohio State
5. Florida State
6. Penn State
7. Washington
8. USC
9. Oregon
10. Utah
11. Notre Dame
12. Alabama
13. LSU
14. Oklahoma
15. North Carolina
16. Washington State
17. Duke
18. Miami
19. Oregon State
20. Ole Miss
21. Tennessee
22. Florida
23. Missouri
24. Kansas
25. Fresno State

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