Florida State vs. Duke expert game picks, predictions

Expert prediction for Florida State vs. Duke by the college football analytic computer model that picks game winners

An ACC matchup between two ranked teams is set to kick off this weekend as No. 4, undefeated Florida State looks to stay perfect against No. 16 Duke on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Florida State vs. Duke picks, predictions

Florida State vs. Duke picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Florida State odds: The computers are siding strongly with the Seminoles, who come out as the winner in 80.7 percent of the projections, or 16,140 of the 20,000 simulations the index uses to pick game winners.

Duke odds: Conversely, the Blue Devils emerged as the outright winner in the remaining 19.3 percent of sims, or 3,860 of the predictions.

Point spread: Florida State is the 14 point favorite against Duke, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 49 points for the game.

Florida State predictions: Up 1 spot this week to No. 9 on the index's 133 team rankings, the Seminoles are projected to be 22.2 points better than an average opponent, and forecasted to win 11.8 games this season as the favorite to win the ACC championship at 63.2 percent.

Duke predictions: The Blue Devils improved to No. 22 on the computer poll, expected to be 12.3 points better than opponents, and projected to win 8.6 games this season.

Score prediction? By taking the index's projections for how much each team should win by against "average opponents," and taking the difference between the two numbers, the computer predicts Florida State will defeat Duke by 9.9 points, or by rounding up, by 10 points in the game.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Duke at Florida State schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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