Georgia vs. Alabama score prediction for SEC Championship Game by expert model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Alabama in the SEC Championship Game

Win, and you're in. That's certainly true for Georgia as it embarks on another appearance in the SEC Championship Game. But it could also be the same for Alabama, as well. The challenger from the West Division sits at one loss, and with what would be a gigantic upset against the Bulldogs, the Crimson Tide could also propel itself into contention for the College Football Playoff if they can pull this off on Championship Saturday.

What can we make of the matchup this weekend? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model as the SEC Championship Game gets underway in Atlanta.

Georgia vs. Alabama prediction

The simulations favor the Bulldogs to edge out the Crimson Tide in this game.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Alabama by a projected score of 30 to 23 and to win the game by an expected 7.2 points to win the SEC Championship.

The model gives the Dawgs a 66 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 374-351-14 (51.6%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26-1 (59.2%) last week, its second-best performance of the season to date.

Point spread

Georgia is a 6 point favorite against Alabama, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 54.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -225 and for Alabama at +190.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Georgia -6
• UGA to win -225
• Bet under 54.5 points

Computer prediction

Most other analytic models also predict Georgia will stay perfect this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index forecasts that Georgia will win the game in 52.1 percent of its simulations, while Alabama comes out ahead in the remaining 47.9 percent of sims.

The computer predicts a very close game, expecting that Georgia will defeat Alabama by 0.5 points, or by 1 if we round up, not enough to cover the line.

Bet on Alabama vs. Georgia here

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SEC Championship Game schedule

When: Sat., Dec. 2
Time: 4 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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