Georgia vs. Kentucky football game prediction, pick

Locking in our predictions for Georgia vs. Kentucky in this Week 6 college football game

This weekend finds college football's defending national champion in action against the team that could supplant it at the top of the SEC East and potentially snap its 22 game win streak, as No. 1 Georgia welcomes No. 20 Kentucky on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What can we expect from the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as Georgia and Kentucky square off this weekend, along with our game predictions.

Georgia vs. Kentucky preview, prediction

Georgia vs. Kentucky game predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 7
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Georgia vs. Kentucky game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Georgia -14.5
Total: 47.5 points
Moneyline: UGA -800 | UK +450
FPI pick: Georgia 86.1% to win

What to watch for

1. Red zone chances. Georgia has allowed opponents to score 8 touchdowns out of 12 trips inside the 20-yard line, or 66.67 percent success, a notable weakness that Kentucky has the power to exploit. So far, the Wildcats are about average in that phase of the game, scoring TDs on 11 of 17 chances, or 64.71 percent. Kentucky is a credible threat in play-action in scoring position, thanks to its expert run game that could leave throwing lanes open for Devin Leary and his receivers to create.

2. Make Georgia air it out. The Bulldogs want to play a more physical brand of offense and seek to establish the run first, and then throw the ball in play-action. More than half of Georgia's passing yards come on first down, and if Kentucky can stand firm defensively on the early downs, they can force Carson Beck into some unwanted third-and-longer situations where he would have to move the chains with his arm.

3. Ray Davis vs. Georgia's front. Kentucky's path to victory resides squarely in their lead tailback, who ran for over 200 yards and forced 10 missed tackles against Florida last week. Now comes a real test, against a Georgia front seven that has been historically dominant the last two years, but looks more human this season. The unit isn't getting into the other team's space as easily, posting only 5.6 tackles for loss per game and just 1.6 sacks per game, both near the bottom of SEC team rankings.

Georgia vs. Kentucky prediction

Kentucky at Georgia game picks / USA Today Images

Bettors are faced with a dilemma in this game. Kentucky is 4-1 against the spread and 3-0 ATS against FBS opposition. Georgia is 0-4-1 against the spread overall, ranking worst nationally, and is 0-3-1 ATS against FBS teams.

But that doesn't tell the whole story: Georgia is 19-16 ATS in its last 35 total games, but that mark improves to 9-3 against ranked teams, and it's 7-2 against the spread in such situations at home since 2018.

Kentucky plays a stronger brand of football on both lines of scrimmage than it has in recent memory, and the ground game will churn out key yardage against a Bulldog line that isn't its usual self. The difference: that line has the power to reduce UK's offense to one-dimension down the stretch, and the Bulldogs still have Brock Bowers.

College Football HQ picks...

• Georgia wins 31-17
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the over

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