LSU vs. Mississippi State score prediction by college football computer model

Expert predictions for LSU vs. Mississippi State in this Week 3 college football game and the SEC opener for both teams

This weekend brings us the SEC opener in the black and blue division of college football as LSU looks to rebound from its 1-1 start in a road game against Mississippi State in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

State is looking towards a new era under head coach Zach Arnett, who took over after the death of Mike Leach, and has introduced a new offensive philosophy away from the Air Raid and towards a more physical approach that so far has resulted in the team averaging 221.5 rushing yards per game in wins over SE Louisiana and Arizona.

LSU recovered from a second half collapse in the opener against Florida State with a 72-10 drubbing of Grambling State in its home debut. Jayden Daniels is a 66 percent passer with six touchdowns in the air against one interception coming into the team's first conference test on the road to defending its SEC West title.

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 3 game.

LSU vs. Mississippi State predictions

LSU vs. MSU kicks off in Week 3 / USA Today Images

Score prediction: The SP+ model projects that LSU will defeat Mississippi State, but by the narrowest of margins, 29 to 28, a projected scoring margin of 1.2 points, and with a close 53 percent chance to win the game outright.

Point spread: LSU comes into the game as 9.5 point favorites to defeat Mississippi State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. (Track it live)

FPI prediction: Jayden Daniels and the Tigers are favored to win the game with 67.4 percent likelihood, compared to the Bulldogs at 32.6 percent to pull off the upset, according to the College Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating games 20,000 times.

Related: LSU vs. Mississippi State picks, predictions, Week 3 college football odds, lines

Where the bets are: The spread consensus pick this week is going with LSU at -9.5, with 59 percent of bettors picking the Tigers to cover the spread, compared with 41 percent betting the Bulldogs at +9.5. 

Betting trends: LSU is 4-1 against the spread in its last 5 vs. MSU... LSU is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 road games... LSU is 10-1 SU vs. MSU in last 11 on the road... State is 4-1 against the spread in last 5 overall... MSU is 1-4 ATS in last 5 against SEC teams... Total went under in 4 of Bulldogs' last 5 games.

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LSU vs. Mississippi State schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 16
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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