Michigan vs. Nebraska score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Michigan vs. Nebraska in this Week 5 college football game

A pair of Big Ten cross-divisional rivals square off this weekend as defending conference champion, No. 2 ranked Michigan hits the road against 2-2, unranked Nebraska in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 5 game.

Michigan vs. Nebraska predictions

Michigan vs. Nebraska picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

The simulations are strongly favoring the Wolverines this weekend, projecting they will defeat Nebraska by an estimated score of 34 to 11, winning by a projected margin of 22.3 points, and with an overall 90 percent chance to win the game outright.

Point spread

Michigan comes into the game as 17 point favorites against Nebraska, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 39 points for the matchup.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take Michigan to cover the 17 point spread, to win on the moneyline at -1613, and take the over.

Computer predictions

Other computer analytic models predict a convincing win for Michigan, as well. That includes the College Football Power Index, an analytics tool that simulates games 20,000 times using a wide variety of data to pick winners.

Michigan wins the game in 87.6 percent of the index's projections, or 17,520 of the 20,000 simulations. Nebraska wins the remaining 12.4 percent of sims, or the other 2,480 total forecasts.

Related: Michigan vs. Nebraska game prediction, preview

Where the bets are

A majority of bettors, over 71 percent of them, favor Michigan to win and cover the 17.5 point spread against Nebraska, while 29 percent of wagers project the Cornhuskers will either upset or keep the game within that margin.

A virtual consensus, just about 100 percent, project the game will score over 39 combined points between the two.

Betting trends

+ Michigan is 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5

+ Huskers are 4-2 ATS in the last 6

+ Total went under in 4 of UM's last 5

+ Nebraska is 1-5 ATS in last 6 September games

+ UM is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 vs. Big Ten West

+ Cornhuskers are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 as the underdog

+ Total went under in Michigan's last 5 September games and 4 of its last 6 games in Week 5

+ Total went under in 7 of NU's last 9 games

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Michigan at Nebraska schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 3:30 ET, 2:30 CT
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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