Michigan vs. Michigan State expert game picks, predictions

Expert prediction for Michigan vs. Michigan State by the college football computer analytic model that picks game winners

One of the Big Ten's oldest rivalries kicks off this weekend as we cross the midseason point with unranked, struggling Michigan State playing host to No. 2 ranked and undefeated Michigan in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Michigan vs. Michigan State picks, predictions

Michigan vs. Michigan State picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Michigan odds: Don't sweat this one out, Wolverine fans. The computers strongly favor Michigan to win with 93.1 percent probability, coming out ahead in 18,620 of the 20,000 simulations the computer uses to pick game winners.

Michigan State odds: That leaves the Spartans as major underdogs, projected to win the game in the remaining 6.9 percent of models, or 1,380 of sims.

Point spread: Michigan is the 24.5 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 48 points for the game.

Michigan predictions: The index bumped UM up 4 spots to the No. 4 position on its 133 team rankings based on the projection that it's 24.5 points better than an average opponent, and estimates it will win 10.8 games this season.

Michigan State predictions: Up 1 spot to No. 59 on the computer poll, the Spartans are projected to be 0.9 points better than average opponents, and forecasted to win 3.8 games this season.

Score prediction? By taking the index's projections of how much each team is expected to win against "average opponents," and taking the difference between those two numbers, the computers predict Michigan will defeat Michigan State by 23.6 points, or, by rounding it up, by 24 points in the game.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Michigan at Michigan State schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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