How Michigan vs. Penn State affects each team's college football playoff hopes

There's plenty on the line as Michigan visits Penn State in college football's Week 11 game

Not all college football games are created equally and, as we move deeper into November and the latter third of the 2023 season, some head-to-head matchups will have a direct impact on what the playoff and national championship race looks like. And maybe no other game means as much as when Michigan visits Penn State.

The clash between Big Ten East rivals will go a long way in helping sort out the East Division standings and in a broader sense, if the Nittany Lions can make a statement that as a program it belongs in the same breath as the class of the Big Ten.

But how does the game impact the national championship picture? For that, let's turn to the College Football Power Index computer prediction model, which simulates games 20,000 times to determine rankings and national standings.

How Michigan vs. Penn State impacts the playoff

When taking all things into account, given the quality of schedule, margin of victory, the so-called eye test, and all the factors the selection committee puts into their decision, it's clear that most of the risk lies with the home team.

Michigan's chances with a win: If the Wolverines win the game, they have a 70 percent chance to be included in the final four seminal this postseason.

Michigan's chances with a loss: But if the Big Ten favorites come out of Happy Valley with their first loss, their playoff chances fall to 18 percent.

Penn State's chances with a win: By taking down Michigan in what would be an upset, the Nittany Lions would have a 42 percent shot to make the College Football Playoff.

Penn State's chances with a loss: But if they lose their second game of the season, those playoff chances plummet to under 1 percent. No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff.

So, who wins the game? Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction from College Football HQ

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