Notre Dame vs. Duke game preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Notre Dame and Duke meet in this Week 5 college football game with our updated predictions

Sam Hartman led two touchdown drives last weekend to take a lead on Ohio State, but the Irish defense, all 10 of them, failed to preserve that last yard. This week, No. 11 Notre Dame sits at one loss heading into a must-win situation at resurgent, undefeated No. 17 Duke in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Notre Dame can hardly afford another loss as it pursues College Football Playoff consideration, and Duke is in the mood for upsets: it knocked off then-9th ranked Clemson in the season opener and is posting 424 yards per game behind a balanced offensive attack.

What do you need to know about the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as Notre Dame and Duke meet up, along with our Week 5 game predictions.

Notre Dame vs. Duke preview, prediction

Notre Dame vs. Duke picks, predictions / Duke Football

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Notre Dame vs. Duke game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Notre Dame -5.5
Total: 53.5 points
Moneyline: ND -225 | Duke +170
FPI pick: Notre Dame 69.5% to win

What to watch for

1. Defense. Both teams bring in star quarterback play, and they'll have their work cut out this week. Duke is 4th nationally allowing just 8.8 points per game and is 5th in surrendering 4.1 yards per snap to opponents. Notre Dame allows 4.2 yards per play and is 15th in surrendering just under 13 points per game. Each defense is stacked with solid, veteran pieces who can limit big gains and don't make a ton of mistakes. ND is 2nd and Duke is 4th nationally in total pass efficiency defense, too.

2. Contain the QB. Notre Dame's front seven will have to prevent Duke quarterback Riley Leonard from exploiting space with his legs. He's already run for 238 yards with four touchdowns and he's the team's second-best rusher at 59.5 yards per game. The Irish have the bodies to generate pressure on the interior, but they have to guard against forcing Leonard outside, where he could gain needed yardage as a runner.

3. Hartman vs. Duke's corners. Aside from the line, Duke's strength on defense is its agile, well-disciplined cornerbacks. The group plays a lot of man coverage and will present a challenge to the Irish receivers, who struggled to make important plays on the outside against Ohio State. The corners have that freedom to make plays thanks to Duke's expert pressure at the line, a unit that can create negative plays in the run game and throw the quarterback off his timing.

Notre Dame vs. Duke prediction

Notre Dame vs. Duke: Who wins? / USA Today Images

One important metric to watch in the game, really in any game, is the turnover margin. Duke had the better margin in 12 of Mike Elko's 17 games as head coach and it's 10-2 in those matchups. Now, the Blue Devils are plus-9 in turnover margin, ranking top 10 nationally. Notre Dame has just 2 turnovers on the year and has scored TDs on 15 of its 18 red zone possessions.

The Irish have the advantage to hold things down well enough in the secondary against Duke's talented receivers provided the front seven holds the line and keeps Leonard from scrambling. 

That, combined with Notre Dame's advantage running the ball behind Audric Estime — who leads college football with 591 rushing yards — against a very average Duke run stop and Hartman working the middle of the field should be enough to avoid the upset.

College Football HQ picks...

• Notre Dame wins 34-24
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

Bet on Notre Dame vs. Duke here

Join FanDuel here to claim $200 worth of bonus bets after wagering just $5 on any game, including Duke vs. Notre Dame.

Claim $200 in Bonus Bets instantly when you Bet $5 with DraftKings as the Irish and Blue Devils face off this week.

Get $200 in Bonus Bets with Bet365 here when you Bet Just $1 on any college football game.

Get up to $1,000 in Bonus Bets with Points Bet right here.

Or get $1,500 paid back in bonus bets from BetMGM if you don’t win.

---

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks