Notre Dame vs. Duke score prediction by college football computer model

Expert picks for Notre Dame vs. Duke in this Week 5 college football game

Coming off a close, three-point loss at home to Ohio State in the game of the week, Notre Dame heads right into another challenging matchup, this time against a ranked Duke squad on the road in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

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What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 5 game.

Notre Dame vs. Duke predictions

Notre Dame vs. Duke predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction: The simulations are siding with Notre Dame, but in a close game, as the Irish are projected to defeat Duke by a score of 28 to 25, an estimated 2.6 point margin, and with a narrow overall win probability of 56 percent in the game.

Point spread: That wouldn't be enough to cover the spread, as Notre Dame comes in as 5.5 point favorites against Duke, and just enough to hit the over on the 52 point total set by SI Sportsbook. If you're betting on the game and using this projection, you should take Duke +5.5 here.

FPI prediction: College Football Power Index, another computer prediction model, forecasts that Notre Dame has the 69.4 percent chance to defeat Duke, coming out ahead in 13,880 of the 20,000 simulations FPI uses to pick winners. Duke prevails in the other 6,120 simulations.

Where the bets are: 72 percent of bettors are siding with Notre Dame to win and cover the 5.5 point spread, while 28 percent of wagers are taking Duke at +5.5. Around 67 percent of bets predict the total will go under 52 points.

Betting trends: Notre Dame is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 games... Total went over in 10 of ND's last 12 games... Irish are 9-0 ATS in the last 9 vs. ACC teams... Duke is 7-1 ATS in the last 8... Blue Devils are 5-0 SU in the last 5 at home.

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Notre Dame at Duke schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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