Notre Dame vs. Duke game time, picks, predictions: Week 5 college football odds, lines

Expert predictions for Notre Dame vs. Duke by the computer analytics model that picks college football games

Not many analysts thought this weekend's game in Durham would feature two ranked teams, but it will be a No. 17 ranked Duke that square off against No. 11 Notre Dame in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Duke took down a then-9th ranked Clemson in the season opener and responded with impressive showings in the next three games to sit at 4-1 on the year behind a balanced offensive attack led by quarterback Riley Leonard, a 68 percent passer with 6 all-purpose touchdowns and no turnovers, aided by a backfield churning out over 200 yards per game on the ground.

Notre Dame sits at 3-1 after failing to defend that one final yard against Ohio State despite Sam Hartman leading two statement touchdown drives in that game, and faces a more narrow window as it looks to play into College Football Playoff contention.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Notre Dame vs. Duke picks, predictions

Notre Dame vs. Duke picks, predictions / Duke Football

Notre Dame odds: The computers project the Fighting Irish will defeat Duke with 69.4 percent likelihood, winning the game outright in 13,880 of the 20,000 simulations the model uses to pick winners.

Duke odds: Conversely, the Blue Devils come out as the winner in the remaining 30.6 percent of simulations, or 6,120 of the 20,000 projections.

Point spread: Notre Dame comes into the game as 5.5 point favorites against Duke, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 53.5 points.

Duke predictions: The index computers project that Duke will be 10.8 points better than an average opponent, and forecasts it will win 8.5 games this season.

Notre Dame predictions: Up 1 spot this week on the index's 133 team rankings despite the Ohio State loss, the Irish are forecasted to win 9.4 games this season and should be 19.8 points better than an average opponent.

Notre Dame vs. Duke schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not strictly in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Ohio State
5. Florida State
6. Penn State
7. Washington
8. USC
9. Oregon
10. Utah
11. Notre Dame
12. Alabama
13. LSU
14. Oklahoma
15. North Carolina
16. Washington State
17. Duke
18. Miami
19. Oregon State
20. Ole Miss
21. Tennessee
22. Florida
23. Missouri
24. Kansas
25. Fresno State

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