Ohio State vs. Maryland score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Ohio State vs. Maryland in this Week 6 college football game

Big Ten East football kicks off this weekend from Columbus as No. 4 ranked, undefeated Ohio State returns home fresh off its open date and statement win at Notre Dame in a conference matchup against a productive, 5-0 Maryland team on Saturday.

Taulia Tagovailoa leads a Maryland offense that ranks 16th in college football by scoring 38.6 points per game, 1st in the Big Ten with 454.8 yards per game, and is 12th nationally with 190 total points on the season. The Terps are also getting to the quarterback, ranking 4th in the conference with 13 sacks.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 6 game.

Ohio State vs. Maryland predictions

Ohio State vs. Maryland predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

As expected, the simulations favor Ohio State to defeat Maryland, but by a margin that may seem closer than other projections. 

SP+ estimates the Buckeyes will beat the Terrapins by a projected score of 34 to 18, a margin of 16.1 points, and with an 82 percent chance of outright victory.

Point spread

Ohio State is a 19.5 point favorite against Maryland, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 58.5 points for the game.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take Maryland at +19.5, bet Ohio State on the moneyline at -1613, and take the under.

Computer predictions

Other analytic models predictably side with Ohio State to take down Maryland, including College Football Power Index. 

Devised by ESPN analysts, the index is a computer predictive tool that simulates games 20,000 times to pick straight-up winners using a wide variety of data points.

FPI projects Ohio State to win the game in 88.4 percent of its simulations, or 17,680 of its 20,000 projections. Maryland wins in the remaining 9% of sims, or 1,800 total.

Where the bets are

A majority of bettors, 76 percent in total, are picking Maryland to either upset or stay under 19.5 points.

The other 24 percent of wagers project the Buckeyes will win and cover the spread.

72 percent of bets expect the game total to go over 58.5 points.

28 percent of bettors project it will go under.

Betting trends

Ohio State is 1-2-1 against the spread this season.

Maryland is 3-2 ATS on the year.

Total went over in 11 of OSU's last 15 games.

Terps are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.

Buckeyes are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 as favorites.

Maryland is 2-4 ATS in the last 6 vs. Ohio State.

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Maryland at Ohio State schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 7
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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