Ohio State vs. Penn State game picks, predictions

Expert predictions for Ohio State vs. Penn State by the college football analytic model that picks game winners

A ton is on the line this weekend as two top-10 ranked Big Ten East rivals meet in a game that will help determine the standings not only in the division or the conference, but potentially the playoff, as No. 7 Penn State travels to No. 3 Ohio State on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Ohio State vs. Penn State picks, predictions

Ohio State vs. Penn State picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Ohio State odds: The computers are siding with the Buckeyes at home, who have a 63.5 percent chance to win the game, meaning they won out in 12,700 of the 20,000 simulations the index uses to pick straight-up game winners.

Penn State odds: That leaves the Nittany Lions as the projected winner in the remaining 36.5 percent of simulations, or the other 7,300 predictions.

Point spread: Ohio State is the 4.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 48 points for the game.

Ohio State predictions: The index rates OSU at No. 1 overall in its 133 team rankings this week, projecting it to be a national-best 27.8 points better than an average opponent, and forecasts the Buckeyes will win 11.3 games this season.

Penn State predictions: Up 4 spots this week on the index rankings, PSU is now slotted at No. 3 nationally after its big win over UMass, which inflated the team's projected per-game scoring margin to 25.2 points against opponents, while the FPI estimates Penn State will win 10.9 games this season.

Score prediction? By taking the index's projections by how much each team is expected to win by against "average opponents," and taking the difference between those two numbers, the computers project Ohio State will win by 2.6 points, or, rounding up, by a field goal at home.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Penn State at Ohio State schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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