Oklahoma vs. SMU score prediction by college football computer model

What to expect as Oklahoma and SMU meet in this Week 2 college football game, with updated score predictions from the whiz kids in the analytics field

James Parks | Sep 9, 2023

Oklahoma vs. SMU score prediction by college football computer model /

An intriguing non-conference game is ready to kick off from Norman as No. 18 Oklahoma squares off against SMU in college football's Week 2 action on Saturday.

SMU is hoping to make a good impression in this road tilt against a Power Five team just weeks after the school announced it will join the ACC and hopes this game will prove a successful litmus test for the Mustangs and their own Power Five aspirations.

The Mustangs played an even game in the opener, downing Louisiana Tech by a 38-14 count, running for over 200 yards while quarterback Preston Johnson threw three touchdown passes while covering 248 yards in the air and wasn't intercepted.

Oklahoma popped off last weekend in a 73-0 massacre of Arkansas State, surpassing 640 total yards, and finishing with its best margin of victory in a season opener since 1917, and the first shut-out for the team under head coach Brent Venables.

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 2 game.

Oklahoma vs. SMU predictions

Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Jayden Gibson celebrates a touchdown catch during a college football game. — Week 2 Oklahoma vs. SMU picks / USA Today Images

Oklahoma vs. SMU score prediction: The SP+ model projects that Oklahoma will defeat SMU by an estimated score of 42 to 22, with a strong 88 percent chance to win the game outright, by an expected margin of 20.3 points.

Point spread: Oklahoma comes into the matchup as 16.5 point favorites against SMU, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. Track it live

FPI prediction: The home team is getting the love this week, as Oklahoma has the 89.9 percent chance to win the game, compared to SMU at 10.1 percent, according to the College Football Power Index, another computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating games 20,000 times.

What we're betting: Expect an early test for the Sooners' back seven coverage unit against a group of Mustang skill players in an Air Raid scheme who can get into space and get yards after the catch. But OU has the athleticism edge when moving the ball and more pieces to throw at SMU's tacklers. Oklahoma -16.5

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Oklahoma vs. SMU schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 9
Time: 5 p.m. Central
Watch: ESPN+

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Published Sep 9, 2023

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.