Ole Miss vs. Penn State score prediction by college football expert model

Expert score predictions for the 2023 Peach Bowl game as Penn State and Ole Miss meet in this SEC vs. Big Ten clash

In the final days of the year, we're also approaching the conclusion of College Football Bowl Season, putting a wrap on the 2023 campaign with some intriguing postseason games, including the annual Peach Bowl that brings us a notable Big Ten vs. SEC matchup between ranked teams as Penn State takes on Ole Miss on Saturday.

Penn State boasts college football's No. 1 ranked total defense but will face a challenge unlike what it saw this year when it lines up against an Ole Miss attack that features several elite skill players who can strike deep. What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's check in with the SP+ prediction model to project the game.

Ole Miss vs. Penn State prediction

The simulations favor the Nittany Lions to pull out the win in this game.

SP+ estimates that Penn State will defeat Ole Miss by a projected score of 30 to 20 and to win the Peach Bowl by an expected 10 points.

The model gives PSU a strong 72 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this year? During the regular season, the SP+ model went 381-354-14 (51.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Penn State is a 5 point favorite against Ole Miss, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 50.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Penn State at -210 and for Ole Miss at +175.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Penn State -5
• PSU to win -210
• Bet under 50.5 points

Computer predictions

Other analytic models also favor Penn State to win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The index predicts that Penn State will win the game in 72.8 percent of its simulations, while the Rebels came out the winner in the remaining 27.2 percent of sims.

By taking each team's projected scoring margin into account, the computers forecast that Penn State will defeat Ole Miss by a projected 10.6 points, or by 11 points if we round up, enough to cover the line.

College Football HQ picks: Penn State vs. Ole Miss in the 2023 Peach Bowl

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2023 Peach Bowl game time

When: Sat., Dec. 30
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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