Penn State vs. Illinois score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Penn State vs. Illinois in this Week 3 college football game and Big Ten conference opener

Things kick off in the Big Ten this weekend as No. 7 ranked Penn State rolls into Illinois for the conference opener in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Penn State is perfect through two games after taking out West Virginia and Delaware behind a rejuvenated offense working behind sophomore quarterback Drew Allar, an 82 percent passer with four touchdowns in the air and no turnovers, at the helm of an attack posting 510 yards per game and scoring 101 total points.

Illinois played it close these first two weeks, needing a comeback at home against Toledo before getting picked apart by Jalon Daniels in an 11-point loss at Kansas, allowing 122 more yards per game than its offense is gaining on the other side.

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 3 game.

Penn State vs. Illinois predictions

Penn State heads to Illinois in Week 3 / USA Today Images

Score prediction: The SP+ model projects that Penn State has an 87 percent chance to defeat Illinois by a projected score of 33 to 14, an estimated scoring margin of 19.4 points, enough to cover the point spread.

Point spread: Penn State comes into the game as 14.5 point favorites to win the game against Illinois, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. (Track it live)

FPI prediction: College Football Power Index, another computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating games 20,000 times forecasts that Penn State has the 86.5 percent chance to win the game outright, compared to Illinois at 13.5 percent.

Related: Penn State vs. Illinois picks, predictions: Week 3 college football lines

Where the bets are: The spread consensus pick is with Penn State, as 86 percent of bettors project Penn State will cover the 14.5 point spread, compared with 14 percent who are riding with Illinois +14.5 in the game. Around 75 percent of bets are going with the total to hit over 48.5 points.

Betting trends: Penn State is 8-0-1 against the spread in its last 9 games... Total went over in 8 of PSU's last 10... Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in last 6 against Big Ten teams... Illinois is 2-5 against the spread in its last 7... Illini are 1-4 ATS in last 5 at home... Total went under in Illinois' last 6 straight against Big Ten East opposition.

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Penn State vs. Illinois schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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