UCLA vs. Oregon State score prediction by college football expert model

Expert score prediction for UCLA vs. Oregon State in this Week 7 college football game

A pair of teams in the top half of the Pac-12 standings look to take an important step towards conference championship contention this week as No. 18 UCLA hits the road against No. 15 Oregon State in this battle of ranked league rivals.

Oregon State sits at No. 4 in the conference standings, with a 5-1 record and a 2-1 mark in league play after defeating Utah and Cal the last two weeks.

UCLA beat a ranked Washington State last week, moving to 1-1 in conference games after the loss at Utah and 4-1 overall at No. 6 in the Pac-12 standings. 

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What can we expect in the game? Let's see how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 7 rivalry.

UCLA vs. Oregon State score prediction

Expect a very close game here, according to the simulations.

Oregon State is currently expected to defeat UCLA at home by a projected score of 28 to 27, a forecasted scoring margin of 1.3 points for the Beavers, who have an expected 53 percent chance of victory in the game, according to the model.

Point spread

Oregon State is a 3.5 point favorite against UCLA, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 54.5 points for the game.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take UCLA at +3.5, bet Oregon State on the moneyline at -175, and take the over.

Computer prediction

Oregon State is being favored by other analytic models, as well.

That includes College Football Power Index, a predictive computer tool that uses several data points to simulate games 20,000 times to pick straight-up game winners.

The index favors Oregon State to win as it came out ahead in 69.5 percent of the simulations, or 13,900 of the 20,000 projections.

UCLA came out the projected winner in the remaining 30.5 percent of sims, or the other 6,100 predictions.

Where the bets are

A clear majority of wagers, 64 percent of them, predict Oregon State will win the game and cover the 3.5 point spread in the process.

The other 36 percent of wagers suggest UCLA will either upset or stay with the line.

There's a nearly even split on the total betting, as 51 percent of bettors project the game will go over 54.5 points, while the 49 percent of wagers suggest it will go under.

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UCLA at Oregon State schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 14
Time: 5 p.m. Pacific
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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