USC vs. Colorado picks, predictions: Week 5 college football game odds, lines

Expert predictions for USC vs. Colorado according to the analytic model that picks college football games

The "Cinderella Story", as Dan Lanning put it, came to an abrupt end last weekend as Colorado absorbed a humbling 42-6 loss on the road to Oregon, and now it's up to Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes to write the sequel this week as they welcome No. 8 USC in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Colorado played a pass-heavy brand of offense through the first four games, posting 353 yards in the air against only 55 each time out running the ball, and the defense is averaging around 75 more yards than the offense is getting so far.

As expected, USC's offense is humming along behind Heisman quarterback Caleb Williams, who has 1,200 yards passing with 15 touchdowns while hitting 74 percent of his throws leading a unit posting 570 yards per game on the attack.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

USC vs. Colorado picks, predictions

USC vs. Colorado picks, predictions / USA Today Images

USC odds: The computers are siding with the Trojans this week, who have an 89.7 percent chance to win outright, according to the models that simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Colorado odds: That leaves the Buffaloes as the projected winner in just 10.3 percent of the simulations, according to the index computer models.

Point spread: USC comes into the game as 21.5 point favorites, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 72.5 points.

USC predictions: Down 3 spots on the index 133 team rankings despite beating Arizona State, the Trojans are projected to be 20.6 points better than an average opponent, forecasted to win 9.8 games this season.

Colorado predictions: The index estimates the Buffaloes will be 0.9 points worse than an average team, estimated to win 5.9 games and lose 6.1 games this year.

USC vs. Colorado schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 10 a.m. MT, 9 a.m. PT
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not strictly in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Ohio State
5. Florida State
6. Penn State
7. Washington
8. USC
9. Oregon
10. Utah
11. Notre Dame
12. Alabama
13. LSU
14. Oklahoma
15. North Carolina
16. Washington State
17. Duke
18. Miami
19. Oregon State
20. Ole Miss
21. Tennessee
22. Florida
23. Missouri
24. Kansas
25. Fresno State

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