USC vs. Notre Dame score prediction by college football expert model

Predictions for USC vs. Notre Dame in this college football rivalry game

There's still plenty on the line this weekend as No. 21 Notre Dame welcomes undefeated, No. 10 ranked USC in this traditional college football rivalry game, between one team trying to keep its playoff hopes alive, and another looking to avoid a third loss on the season.

Notre Dame's playoff hopes were in all likelihood destroyed after losing a second game on the road against Louisville, while USC remains perfect and hoping to take an important step towards making its first playoff berth.

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What can we expect in the game? Let's see how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 7 rivalry.

USC vs. Notre Dame score prediction

The simulations predict a close game here. A very close game.

Too close to call, practically, as the models forecast what would be a 30-30 tie between the Trojans and Fighting Irish.

But the projected point margin calculations break that tie in favor of Notre Dame, by a very narrow 0.4 margin of victory, and gives the Irish a close 51 percent chance to win.

Point spread

Oddsmakers also project a close game, as Notre Dame is listed as a 2.5 point favorite against USC, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 60.5 points.

If you're using this projection to bet the game, you should take USC +2.5, bet Notre Dame on the moneyline at -150, and take the under.

Computer prediction

Notre Dame leads most other projections from other analytic models.

College Football Power Index is a predictive computer tool that uses a variety of data points to simulate games 20,000 times and pick straight-up game winners.

The index forecasts Notre Dame to win in 61.9 percent of simulations, or 12,380 of the projections. USC wins the remaining 38.1 percent of sims, or 7,620 of the predictions.

Where the bets are

A slight majority of bettors, 54 percent of them, predict USC will either upset the Irish or keep the game within 2.5 points in a loss.

The other 46 percent of wagers suggest Notre Dame will win and cover the 2.5 point spread against the Trojans.

57 percent of bets expect the game will go over the 60.5 points, while the other 43 percent believe the total will go under that number.

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USC at Notre Dame schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 14
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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