USC vs. Notre Dame picks, prediction, Week 7 college football pick 'em

Expert prediction for USC vs. Notre Dame by the college football analytic model that picks game winners

James Parks | Oct 14, 2023

USC vs. Notre Dame picks, prediction, Week 7 college football pick 'em /

One of college football's most historic rivalry games returns to the field this weekend as No. 21 Notre Dame returns home to square off against No. 10, undefeated USC.

Plenty is on the line for both teams, although one more than the other. That's after Notre Dame lost its second game of the season last week at Louisville, all but ensuring it won't be in the College Football Playoff conversation.

Meanwhile, the Trojans are still perfect, but facing critical questions both on a defense that has continued to struggle containing opposing skill threats, and now an offense that, while loaded with playmakers and led by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams at quarterback, got off to a very slow start last week against Arizona.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

USC vs. Notre Dame picks, predictions

USC Trojans wide receiver Brenden Rice catches a pass during a college football game. — USC vs. Notre Dame game picks / USA Today Images

Notre Dame odds: The analytic model is favoring the Fighting Irish in this one, projecting they have a 61.6 percent chance to defeat USC, winning out in 12,320 of the 20,000 simulations the model uses to pick straight-up winners.

USC odds: Conversely, the Trojans are projected to win the game with 38.4 percent likelihood, winning out in the remaining 7,680 sims.

Game line: Notre Dame is a 2.5 point favorite against USC, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 60.5 points for the game.

USC predictions: Down 1 spot on the index's 133 team rankings this week, the Trojans fell to No. 13 nationally, expected to be 17.7 points better than an average opponent, and are projected to win 9.7 games this season.

Notre Dame predictions: The index considers the Irish to be similar to USC in that it projects them to be 17.7 points better than average opponents, but was ranked one spot ahead at No. 12, and is projected to win 8.9 games.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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First-place votes in parentheses

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Published Oct 14, 2023

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.