Washington vs. Arizona score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Washington vs. Arizona in this Week 5 college football game

This weekend brings us a Pac-12 conference tilt between a pair of productive offenses as unranked, 3-1 Arizona welcomes No. 7 ranked, undefeated Washington in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Rankings: AP | Coaches | ESPN

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 5 game.

Washington vs. Arizona predictions

Washington vs. Arizona picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Score prediction

The simulations favor Washington to stay undefeated, projecting it will defeat Arizona by an estimated score of 40 to 22, an expected margin of 18 points for the Huskies, who have the 85 percent chance of victory outright, according to the model.

Point spread

Washington comes into the game as 18.5 point favorites against Arizona, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 67.5 points for the matchup.

If you're betting on the game using this projection, you should take Arizona +18.5, bet on Washington to win on the moneyline at -1099, and hit the under.

For reference, Washington has defeated its four opponents — Boise State, Tulsa, Michigan State, and Cal — by an average of 32.75 points per game.

Computer predictions

Other analytic models are also predicting Washington will win the game convincingly. That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that simulates games 20,000 times using several data points to pick winners.

The index projects Washington will win the game with 85.6 percent likelihood, coming out the victor in 17,120 of the 20,000 simulations. Arizona wins the remaining 2,880 simulations, or 14.4 percent of the total.

Where the bets are

The spread consensus pick is siding strongly with Washington, as 82 percent of bettors predicting it will win the game and cover the 18.5 point spread. The other 18 percent of wagers pick Arizona to upset or keep it within the line.

All bets currently favor Washington and Arizona to combine for over 67.5 points.

Betting trends

+ UW is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games

+ Arizona is 6-3 ATS in the last 9 September games

+ Total went under in 9 of Huskies' last 12 road games

+ Arizona is 4-1 SU in the last 5 games

+ Washington is 10-0 SU in the last 10

+ Total went over in 4 of Arizona's last 5 vs. UW

+ Huskies are 7-0 SU in the last 7 vs. Pac-12 teams

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Washington at Arizona schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 8 p.m. MT, 7 p.m. PT
TV: Pac-12 Network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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