Phil Steele predicts the 2023 preseason AP college football rankings

Our first look at predicting the preseason college football rankings, according to predictor extraordinaire Phil Steele

We're under 70 days from seeing college football kick off around the country, which makes it officially Talkin' Season. Georgia is the defending national champion, but the Bulldogs have a lot to replace on its historically-great roster, and will have plenty of competition in and out of the SEC to make it a three-peat.

More: Ranking College Football's 10 Best Offenses in 2023

What about that competition? Phil Steele — renowned for his annual preseason football magazine — set about putting the sport's best teams in perspective.

Predicting the preseason football rankings is something Steele is pretty good at: of the 140 teams in those top 10 polls over the last 13 years, Steele correctly picked 134 of them, a success rate of 95.7 percent. If he says it, you can book it.

College Football Rankings: Predicting the Preseason AP Top 10

Rankings via Phil Steele

10. Notre Dame

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Where Notre Dame was: 9-4, def. South Carolina in the Gator Bowl

Notre Dame's last ranking: No. 18

Where Notre Dame is now: Marcus Freeman steps into Year 2 without offensive play caller Tommy Rees or quarterback Tyler Buchner, both of whom bolted for Alabama, but with a major coup at quarterback after Sam Hartman (110 career touchdowns) transferred in to the Fighting Irish.

Hartman pairs well with what figures to be talented running back tandem, and all are working from behind one of college football's best offensive lines. Notre Dame gets Ohio State and USC at home in major marquee games; win those, and a spot in the playoff is a very real possibility.

9. USC

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Where USC was: 11-3 (8-1 Pac-12), lost to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl

USC's last ranking: No. 12

Where USC is now: Hoping that Alex Grinch can take a scalpel to the Trojans' defense so it doesn't ruin this team's chance again this season. The unit was replete with missed tackles and blown coverages and ultimately doomed what was a real shot at the College Football Playoff in Lincoln Riley's first year.

But USC's offense should look similar, especially with Heisman quarterback Caleb Williams returning: he led the team with 10 rushing scores while posting over 4,500 yards passing with 42 touchdowns in the air. 

Transfer receiver Dorian Singer is a major addition after he was the Pac-12's most prodigious target last fall with over 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. Austin Jones and Raleek Brown project as USC's top rushers, and they'll get help from transfer MarShawn Lloyd, who ran for 573 yards and nine touchdowns with South Carolina last fall.

More: College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings in 2023

8. Clemson

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Where Clemson was: 11-3 (8-0 ACC), lost to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl

Clemson's last ranking: No. 13

Where Clemson is now: After missing out on the College Football Playoff for what is now two straight seasons, Clemson is on the verge of slipping out of the superpower ranks. Dabo Swinney has diagnosed the offense as the cause of that slippage and brought on Garrett Riley from TCU to change this offense around for good.

That should make this attack more aggressive behind quarterback Cade Klubnik, a former 5-star from Texas who helped jump-start the offense at the end of last season, but Clemson needs more firepower at receiver and has serious work to do replacing its stout defensive front seven in 2023.

7. Florida State

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Where Florida State was: 10-3 (5-3 ACC), def. Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl

Florida State's last ranking: No. 11

Where Florida State is now: Looking like a genuine title contender in the ACC after the decision of both quarterback Jordan Travis and edge rusher Jared Verse to return in 2023, combined with some important transfer portal additions including defensive back Fentrell Cypress, a skilled coverage piece who will help FSU's pass defense. Mike Norvell teams always run the ball well and should again, even despite losing back Treshaun Ward, but the Seminoles have statement games against LSU and Clemson that will determine how their season ends up.

6. LSU

Where LSU was: 10-4 (6-2 SEC), def. Purdue in the Citrus Bowl

LSU's last ranking: No. 16

Where LSU is now: Three of LSU's most important pieces from its surprise SEC West title run are back in 2023: quarterback Jayden Daniels, also the team's leading rusher, defensive end Maason Smith, and linebacker Harold Perkins. 

That's in addition to all five of LSU's offensive linemen, a skilled receiver group led by Malik Nabers, who was over 1,000 yards last fall, and some talented options at running back. LSU opens against Florida State and has vital road tests at Ole Miss and at Alabama midseason.

More: Ranking College Football's 10 Hardest Schedules in 2023

5. Penn State

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Where Penn State was: 11-2 (7-2 Big Ten), def. Utah in the Rose Bowl

Penn State's last ranking: No. 7

Where Penn State is now: Sean Clifford and Joey Porter are out, but Penn State returns a very strong core at the running back position, an offensive line with some real potential and that returns tackle Olu Fashanu, plus a solid defensive rotation.

Drew Allar, a former 5-star prospect from Cleveland, steps in at quarterback, high on potential but low on experience and with a gifted cast of contributors around him. Penn State lost to Big Ten powers Michigan and Ohio State a year ago; win one of those games in 2023 and the Nittany Lions can take a serious turn for the playoff.

4. Michigan

Where Michigan was: 13-1 (9-0 Big Ten), Big Ten champion, lost to TCU in College Football Playoff semifinal

Michigan's last ranking: No. 3

Where Michigan is now: A lot of what put Michigan back in the national picture is returning in 2023 to make it three straight Big Ten titles, wins over rival Ohio State, and College Football Playoff appearances, including the core of this offense, its protection, and a defense that should remain mostly at par from last season.

Crucially, the Wolverines get the bulk of its elite rushing production back: Blake Corum — 1,463 yards, 18 TDs — and Donovan Edwards — 991 yds, 7 TDs — both return to balance things out while quarterback J.J. McCarthy builds on his legacy after passing for 22 touchdowns and five interceptions.

3. Ohio State

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Where Ohio State was: 11-2 (8-1 Big Ten), lost to Georgia in College Football Playoff semifinal

Ohio State's last ranking: No. 4

Where Ohio State is now: Quarterback is a major question for Ryan Day to answer this spring in a competition between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown for the right to replace C.J. Stroud. Aside from that, this offense looks pretty potent, bringing back Marvin Harrison, Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and Julian Fleming, arguably the premier trio of targets in college football. Serious running back skill returns in the form of TreVeyon Henderson, Miyan Williams, and Dallan Hayden, giving Ohio State a lot of options moving the ball downfield.

Defensively, the Buckeyes return a projected 77 percent of their defense next season, ranked 20th in the nation with stars like linebacker Tommy Eichenberg choosing to return with incoming third-year players like cornerback Denzel Burke and defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau, while transfer defensive back Ja'Had Carter is a very important addition who brings coverage ability to the secondary.

2. Alabama

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Where Alabama was: 11-2 (6-2 SEC), def. Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl

Alabama's last ranking: No. 5

Where Alabama is now: Much has been made of what Alabama is losing, including quarterback Bryce Young, defender Will Anderson, and back Jahmyr Gibbs, but the Crimson Tide also boast what could be the core of another high-profile quartet of playmakers on offense: quarterback Jalen Milroe, wide receivers Jermaine Burton and Ja'Corey Brooks, and running back Jase McClellan.

Burton and Brooks are Alabama's top returning scorers, combining for 15 touchdowns last season, and McClellan tied Gibbs with a team-high 7 rushing scores, but should finally have the chance to show he's starting material in his own right. Milroe has shown flashes of dynamic dual threat capability but still has to win the quarterback competition this summer against 5-star Ty Simpson and ND transfer Tyler Buchner.

1. Georgia

Where Georgia was: 15-0 (8-0 SEC), College Football Playoff national champion

Georgia's last ranking: No. 1

Where Georgia is: Jalen Carter, arguably college football's best defensive player is gone, as is quarterback Stetson Bennett, the face of Georgia's budding dynasty the last two seasons, but the Bulldogs aren't short on talent in reserve.

Georgia's two top scorers are back including star tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey, both of whom scored seven times a year ago. And the Bulldogs acquired two vital additions in the transfer portal: Dominic Lovett, Missouri's leading target a year ago, and RaRa Thomas, who led Mississippi State in receiving; both combined for 10 TDs last fall.

(Steele)

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