Florida vs. USF football preview, prediction
Florida hopes to find some momentum and stability after its first loss of the season when the Gators host USF in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.
Florida dipped 6 spots to No. 18 in the AP poll after losing to Kentucky at home last weekend, while USF comes in at 1-1 following a defeat against BYU and a win over Howard.
Here's what you need to know about this Saturday's matchup in the Swamp.
Florida vs. USF football preview, prediction
Week 3 college football schedule: Florida vs. USF
How to watch
When: Sat., Sept. 17
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Game odds, point spreads, betting lines
Line: Florida -24.5
O/U: 59
Moneyline: UF -5000 USF +1400
FPI pick: Florida 93.9%
What you need to know
USF: The Bulls have good balance on offense so far this year, except when it comes to scoring. Gerry Bohanon hasn't thrown a TD yet this year, but the Bulls are over 300 yards rushing in 2 games while posting a near-6 ypc average and have scored 8 times on the ground (6 of those in 1 game). But they have a tough time moving the chains, checking in at just 25% on third down attempts.
Florida: Despite the praise Anthony Richardson got in the opener, he's yet to throw a TD pass in 2 outings. But he's run for 3 and the Gators are over 6 ypc on the ground with 2 backs carrying for over 7 and have 419 combined yards. UF's front seven played admirably against Kentucky and should lock down USF's ground attack, forcing Bohanon to win the game with his arm.
Florida vs. USF: Fast Facts
+ USF ran for 6 TDs against Howard, the 2nd most in school history
+ Florida allowed 22 first-half rushing yards this season
+ Bulls return 93% of their rushing production from last season
+ Florida has won 13 straight non-conference regular season games since 2018
+ USF returns 24 of its 25 rushing TDs from a year ago
+ Gators are 28-4 when scoring 30-plus points since 2018 and 1-9 when scoring less than 21
+ USF is 0-13 under Jeff Scott when opponents lead at the half
+ Florida averages 209.5 rush yards per game with 3 100-yard runners
+ USF is 0-17 under Scott when allowing 21-plus points
+ Florida edge Brenton Cox has 33 QB hurries and 24.5 TFLs and posted a hurry in 8 straight games
+ Bulls are 4-1 when under Scott when running for 200-plus yards
+ Florida has out-sacked opponents by a plus-25 margin since 2021
+ USF is 2-12 under Scott when opponents score first
What happens?
Richardson should have adequate time to develop his deeper passing game behind a line that only allowed its first sack more than 6 quarters into the season and shouldn't be too overwhelmed by the Bulls' pass rush.
That, combined with a gifted backfield that has two 7-plus yard per carry backs in Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson, not to mention Richardson's own proven mobility, should help the Gators control the pace, move the chains, get into scoring position with some ease.
Florida's run stop will fare well against USF's backs after holding Kentucky to just 1.8 ypc and 70 total rush yards last week, while its pursuit group off the edge has the room to shrink the pocket and throw Bohanon out of rhythm.
This week should also allow UF to more fully establish its receivers on the perimeter and provide Richardson some reliable targets downfield, a trend this offense has lacked and will need when it opens SEC play.
College Football HQ Prediction: Florida 38, USF 10
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
- USC
- Oklahoma State
- Kentucky
- Arkansas
- Michigan State
- BYU
- Miami
- Utah
- Tennessee
- NC State
- Baylor
- Florida
- Wake Forest
- Ole Miss
- Texas
- Penn State
- Pittsburgh
- Texas A&M
- Oregon