Ohio State vs. Toledo football preview, prediction

Preview, prediction for Ohio State vs. Toledo on the Week 3 college football schedule

James Parks | Sep 17, 2022

Ohio State vs. Toledo football preview, prediction /

Ohio State hosts in-state foe Toledo in its non-conference finale at the Horseshoe in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

The No. 3 ranked Buckeyes are perfect through 2 games, including a win over then-5th ranked Notre Dame, though that game doesn't look as good as could have thanks to the Irish dropping to 0-2.

But there's still plenty of time to build a College Football Playoff resume and showing off in games like this is a good starting point.

Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup at the 'Shoe.

Ohio State vs. Toledo football preview, prediction

Ohio State Buckeyes college football team schedule, rankings — Week 3 college football schedule: Ohio State vs. Toledo

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 17

Time: 7 p.m. Eastern

TV: Fox network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Game odds, point spread, betting lines

Line: Ohio State -32

O/U: 62

Moneyline: UT +1300 OSU -5000

FPI pick: Ohio State 97.4%

What you need to know

Toledo: The presumptive favorites in the MAC this season - FPI predicts it could win 10 games this year - have outscored opponents 92-10 so far. Granted, it's against overmatched teams, but that's how you're supposed to play that kind of competition. DeQuan Finn is a 61% passer who posts under 8 ypa, but is solid running the ball: he leads Toledo with 138 rushing yards and 3 of the team's 8 rushing TDs. Finn will annoy OSU's front seven enough in the early stages, but a lack of skill targets means he won't get much out of it.

Ohio State: College football's reigning No. 1 offense hasn't looked quite as dominant as we expected. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's absence hasn't hurt too much after CJ Stroud hit Marvin Harrison, Jr. for 3 TDs last week. Harrison and Emeka Egbuka are both over 200 yards while TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are good for 7.1 and 5.9 ypc, respectively, and should eat against a Toledo line that isn't great against the run.

Ohio State vs. Toledo: Fast Facts

+ Ohio State is 32-0 under Ryan Day when scoring 30-plus points

+ Toledo is 2nd nationally allowing 5.0 points per game

+ OSU has not allowed a TD in 6 straight quarters, the longest since not allowing one in 8 in 2019

+ UT is 2nd allowing 58 passing yards per game

+ Ryan Day offenses are 38-0 when scoring 40-plus points

+ Toledo is 4th in total defense so far, allowing 183 yards per game

+ OSU is holding opposing backs to 2.02 yards per carry, 9th best nationally

+ Toledo is 0-3 all-time vs. Ohio State

+ Ohio State has forced punts on 15 of opponents' 23 possessions (65%)

+ Toledo is 9-19 all-time against top 25 ranked teams

+ Ohio State is 1st nationally with a 100% red zone scoring offense

+ Toledo is 1st in the MAC with 46 ppg and 230 rushing yards per game

+ OSU is 20-1 at home and 10-3 against non-conference opponents under Day

What happens?

Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson on a rushing attempt during a college football game in the Big Ten. — USA Today Images

Toledo has the piece at quarterback to make a lot of decent gainers with his legs early in the game, and he has 2 targets (Jamal Turner and Jerjuan Newton) who post over 20 yards per catch.

And the Rockets are pretty good in the red zone: their 6 scores inside the 20 are 2nd nationally behind Georgia and Clemson.

Don't forget Toledo also played a good Notre Dame team close on the road last season, losing by just 3, and could catch the Buckeyes napping if they look ahead to the Wisconsin game next weekend.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba coming back into the fold should prove enough inspiration to prevent that from happening as Stroud will have his full complement of receivers and OSU has 2 backs who can easily push around Toledo's front seven group.

College Football HQ Prediction: Ohio State 45, Toledo 16

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

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Published Sep 17, 2022

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.