Oklahoma State vs. Baylor college football preview, prediction

What to watch as Oklahoma State and Baylor meet in a rematch of the Big 12 title game on the Week 5 college football schedule

James Parks | Oct 1, 2022

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor college football preview, prediction /

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor football preview, prediction

Oklahoma State Cowboys college football team schedule, rankings — Week 5 college football schedule: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 1

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern

TV: Fox network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Odds courtesy SI Sportsbook

Line: Baylor -2.5

O/U: 56.5

Moneyline: OSU +110 BAY -143

FPI pick: Baylor 65.3%

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State: What you need to know

Baylor Bears college football team schedule, rankings

1. Defense could decide it. Sure, the Big 12 has built its reputation for playing high-flying offense the last few years, but these two teams rode elite defensive play to the conference title game last season. OSU's has taken a slight hit since Jim Knowles left, allowing 44 points to Central Michigan early on. But it also held Arizona State to 17. The Cowboys boast a premier pass rush off the edges and Baylor is superb against the run and can make plays behind the line on a semi-regular basis.

2. Cowboys can get to the QB. That edge rush has the potential to completely throw Baylor off its passing game early. Blake Shapen is more than decent throwing, good for almost 70% with only 1 pick, but is yet to complete more than 20 passes in a game. Facing pressure, those numbers go down: to around 41% completion when Shapen is under duress. Baylor can run the ball well, in the top 25 nationally at just under 209 ypg, but gets its best results when playing with more balance.

3. Cutting down on turnovers. This will be the most complete defense Cowboy quarterback Spencer Sanders goes up against so far this season. And he'll hear a lot about those 4 picks he threw to Baylor in Arlington. He's been efficient so far, throwing 10 TD passes to just 1 pick, even if the QB isn't getting enough from the run game yet. Maintaining that efficiency and working in a lot of quick medium gainers while keeping the ball in his team's hands is the key to victory for Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor: Fast Facts

+ OSU is 8th nationally in total offense (511.3 ypg)

+ Baylor is 9th nationally allowing 79.5 rush yards per game

+ Cowboys are 1st nationally with 51.7 points per game

+ Baylor is 102nd nationally with 7.5 penalties per game

+ OSU is 5th best with .234 third down defense conversion rate

+ Baylor is 9-15 when opponents score 20-plus points under Dave Aranda and 9-0 when they score fewer than 20

+ Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders is 1st nationally in pts responsible for per game, 5th in total offense, and 11th in passing efficiency

+ Baylor is 22-1 when scoring 30-plus points under Aranda

+ OSU has won 19 of the last 27 against Baylor

+ Baylor is 14-2 under Aranda when leading at halftime and 2-7 when not

+ Oklahoma State is 6-1 in its last 7 against AP top 25 ranked teams

+ Baylor is 2-6 when rushing under 100 yards and 15-4 when over 100 under Aranda

+ OSU is 104-34 under Mike Gundy when scoring first and 48-35 when not

+ Baylor has won 9 straight and is 11-2 overall at home under Aranda

+ Cowboys are 149-51 scoring 20-plus and 3-18 when scoring fewer than 20 under Gundy

+ Baylor is 9-15 when allowing 20-plus points under Aranda

+ Oklahoma State is 116-13 under Gundy when leading at the half

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Prediction

Oklahoma State will test Baylor early in the game as it develops the deeper passing game with pace to get Spencer Sanders settled off the bye week.

And while the Baylor defense may show some cracks in the short and intermediate game, it's been holding up well when it gets in the red zone, and has played superbly against the run, with the power to force OSU into a one-dimensional approach and make Sanders win the game with his arm.

If Baylor can get Shapen to dump the ball out quickly and evade the Cowboys' pursuit group off the edge, then he can establish an important rhythm that, aided by the home field advantage and a solid ground attack, can push this offense into scoring position.

College Football HQ Prediction: Baylor 27, Oklahoma State 23

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According to AP top 25 poll

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Published Oct 1, 2022

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.