PECOTA Projects Milwaukee Brewers to Win NL Central in 2023

Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus released its annual PECOTA projections, for the 2023 Major League Baseball season. The simulations had the Milwaukee Brewers narrowly edging out the Cardinals in the NL Central. PECOTA had the Brewers winning 87.6 games, with St. Louis winning 87.5 games.

Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus released its annual PECOTA projections, for the 2023 Major League Baseball season.

While many experts believe that the St. Louis Cardinals are the runaway favorites to win the National League Central, PECOTA's simulations had a different division champion.

The simulations had the Milwaukee Brewers narrowly edging out the Cardinals. PECOTA had the Brewers winning 87.6 games, with St. Louis winning 87.5 games.

Milwaukee led the NL Central for a majority of the 2022 season, and even had a four-game lead over St. Louis entering play July 31. However, the club came unglued down the stretch of the season and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

The Brewers made some moves over the winter to improve their roster, and hope to have a more potent offense in 2023. The club traded for All-Star catcher William Contreras from the Atlanta Braves and 2021 All-Star corner outfielder Jesse Winker from the Seattle Mariners. Winker is coming off a down year in Seattle, and hopes to return to form, now back in the Midwest. He could be a prime candidate for a bounce-back in 2023.

The Brewers dealt second baseman Kolten Wong to the Mariners in exchange for Winker. Rookie Brice Turang could get a chance to shine at second base this season.

The Brewers also added free agent starting pitcher Wade Miley, who is coming off an injury-riddled 2022 in which he made just eight starts for the Chicago Cubs. If he stays healthy, Miley can solidify the Brewers' pitching rotation.

The Brewers reportedly received calls from other teams about the availability of shortstop Willy Adames and starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruffs. All three players would command a very strong return in a trade.

BETMGM has the Brewers' over/under win total set at 85.5.

For more on Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections, here's how Baseball Prospectus defines PECOTA:

"Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not "pick" a team to 'win' any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range. That is the point of the visualizations. Any one of those outcomes is possible. However, some of them, as you can see, are more likely than others."

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