UFC 295 Bold Predictions & Preview: Prochazka vs. Pereira, Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
UFC 295 underwent a major change just a couple of weeks ago, but we have arrived and the event still packs quite a punch.
The main event of UFC 295 will not be a heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic, which was the original plan. Jones suffered a torn pectoral tendon, forcing him off the card.
A vacant light heavyweight title fight between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira has been elevated to headliner status, while an interim heavyweight title clash between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall gets co-main event honors.
UFC 295: ANTHONY SMITH MAKES STRONG PREDICTION FOR JIRI PROCHAZKA VS. ALEX PEREIRA
Also featured on the UFC 295 main card will be a women's strawweight clash between Mackenzie Dern and former UFC titleholder Jessica Andrade. Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, and Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini are also set for the main card.
Now, let's get into the MMA Knockout staff predictions for UFC 295:
Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira - for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
UFC 295 headliners Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira.
(via Zuffa LLC)
Fernando Quiles Jr: It's no secret that both Prochazka and Pereira are capable of shutting the lights off. With Jiri, his dynamic striking and pressure could be the key to stifling Pereira's kickboxing acumen. With that said, Prochazka tends to get lured into brawls, and I think it'll be his downfall here. I think he'll find success early, then fall into a kickboxing match with "Poatan," which will lead to a TKO loss. (Pick: Pereira)
Mathew Riddle: I'm pulling for Jiri but I can't shake the fact that he's coming back from a career-altering injury. He's also a magnet for check left hooks and his open-guard style is just playing with fire, especially against the best kickboxer the UFC has ever seen. I'm going to use logic here and pick "Poatan" for the KO victory, but if the fight sees later rounds Jiri could easily pick it up. (Pick: Pereira)
Drew Beaupré: I love the fact that this fight includes the narrative of Pereira trying to “avenge” Glover Teixeira’s loss to Procházka, but stylistically the matchup does seem to boil down to how actively the former light heavyweight champion will try to bring things to the mat. Procházka seems like the type of fighter that might be eager to prove his standup skills against the Brazilian, and even though he showed off some incredible toughness against Teixeira he probably won't want to test his chin as much here. It’s a difficult one to call, but as with the co-main event I’ll give the edge to the seemingly more well-rounded fighter and take Procházka. (Pick: Procházka)
Zain Bando: They say ring rust is real, but something tells me the former UFC light heavyweight champion has been licking his chops for over a year to get back in the Octagon. Pereira's chin has been tested before, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again. But then again, this is Madison Square Garden, and anything can happen. But the safe pick here is the former light heavyweight champion. (Pick: Procházka)
Consensus: 2-2, tied
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall - for the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship
UFC 295 co-headliners Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall.
(via Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports)
Fernando Quiles Jr: Another fine piece of last-minute matchmaking from the UFC brass after the craziness of UFC 294. Aspinall's speed for a heavyweight is something to behold, but Pavlovich has some heavy hands, and that may be bad news for Aspinall, who tends to leave himself open with his chin exposed. I'm taking Pavlovich in this one, and while I like this matchup it could end early. (Pick: Pavlovich)
Mathew Riddle: Now this is a coinflip fight. Worth reminding that Aspinall has had roughly 2 weeks to prepare whilst Pavlovich has had a full camp (as the replacement fighter for Jones/Miocic).
I think if they decide to strike, Pavlovich wins, he takes one to get one, and Aspinall leaves his chin hanging on the end of every exchange. Pavlovich has the sort of cruel power that even a high guard can't endure.
That said, I can see Aspinall shooting for the hips and trying to work Pavlovich on the ground, BUT, Pavlovich must have been preparing his defensive wrestling for Jones/Miocic, and more importantly after his loss to Overeem.
I edge in favor of Pavlovich. (Pick: Pavlovich)
Drew Beaupré: Countless fight fans wanted to witness the spectacle of Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic sharing the Octagon together at Madison Square Garden, but this is still a fantastic fight between a pair of great heavyweight talents. Pavlovich has largely run through all of his opponents since coming up short in his UFC debut, while Aspinall rebounded nicely from his knee injury when he returned to beat Marcin Tybura in July. He’ll obviously have to survive whatever barrage Pavlovich puts together in the first round, but so far Aspinall has displayed the more well-rounded skillset and I’ll pick him to win the interim heavyweight belt. (Pick: Aspinall)
Zain Bando: This is a fight I've gone back-and-forth on all week, but Aspinall seems destined to get the belt. He has said he knew this moment would come, and if he can avoid Pavlovich's wrestling and ground control, as arguably his most impressive win came against Curtis Blaydes, Aspinall should be able to keep the fight where he wants it: on the feet. (Pick: Aspinall)
Consensus: 2-2, tied
Mackenzie Dern vs. Jessica Andrade
UFC 295 main card fighters Mackenzie Dern and Jessica Andrade.
(via David Yeazell & Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports)
Fernando Quiles Jr: Jessica Andrade has not returned to championship form since being blitzed by Zhang Weili back in 2019. Andrade still has strength, but I think Mackenzie Dern gets her to the ground and if she doesn't get the submission, she'll have enough control time for the decision. Let's not also forget the improvements Dern has made in the standup, so she can mix things up and score takedowns consistently if need be. (Pick: Dern)
Mathew Riddle: I think Andrade is on her way out, and Dern is on her way up. Andrade is one of the most submitted fighters in UFC history, and Dern is a wizard on the floor. The height and length disparity for Andrade also benefits Dern on the feet. (Pick: Dern)
Drew Beaupré: Andrade started the year well before going on the first three-fight losing streak of her career, and even though all those losses came against top competition it’s certainly a concern that she was also finished in each of those outings. Dern is obviously more than capable of handing the former champion another loss if things hit the ground, but I’ll take Andrade to keep things standing and end her losing run with one of the violent striking displays that’s made her so popular among fans. (Pick: Andrade)
Zain Bando: A must-win for Andrade is almost an understatement. Losing three of five is not a good look for a former champion, and neither is going over a year without back-to-back wins. Dern has her right where she wants her and will win inside the distance. (Pick: Dern)
Consensus: 3-1, Mackenzie Dern
Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
UFC 295 main card fighters Matt Frevola and Benoit Saint-Denis.
(via Jessica Alcheh & Per Haljestam/USA TODAY Sports)
Fernando Quiles Jr: Frevola is the boogeyman when it comes to prospects. Saint-Denis is rising, but Frevola has been in this spot before and has come out on the better side of things with wins over the likes of previously unbeaten Ottman Azaitar. Denis will need be careful, as Frevola can give anyone pause in the standup, but I think Frevola is in for some problems if this fight hits the ground. (Pick: Saint-Denis)
Mathew Riddle: Frevola's really found his rhythm lately, and he's usually at his best in a firefight (see: Valdez, Dober). I predict Saint-Denis is going to storm Frevola and get chin checked. (Pick: Frevola)
Drew Beaupré: There’s an argument to be made that this is the most well-matched fight on the card based on how each man has performed over their recent outings. Frevola’s last bout against Dober was a statement victory that proved he’s capable of hanging with some of the best lightweights on the UFC roster, and even though Saint-Denis is on a tremendous run and is a huge finishing threat in his own right I’ll pick “The Steamrolla” to pick up his fourth win in a row. (Pick: Frevola)
Zain Bando: Saint-Denis is one of the hottest prospects I've seen in quite a while. This is a potential "Fight of the Night" contender. (Pick: Saint-Denis)
Consensus: 2-2, tied
Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
UFC 295 main card fighters Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini.
(via Christopher Hanewinckel & Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports)
Fernando Quiles Jr: I'm not expecting a banger on the feet here, but things can get very interesting on the ground. We know Lopes uses his ground game effectively to thwart submissions and he's been savvy enough to score 12 submissions in his career. I don't think he finds a sub on Sabatini, however. I see Sabatini stifling Lopes' finish attempts and doing enough to get a decision. (Pick: Sabatini).
Mathew Riddle: (Pick: Lopes via submission)
Drew Beaupré: Lopes already seems to be growing into a bit of a fan favorite after only two fights in the UFC, but it’s easy to forget that Sabatini was also 4-0 in the promotion prior to his loss to Damon Jackson last year. Both these men are coming off submission wins and could engage in some entertaining scrambles on the ground, and even though Sabatini has a grappling advantage over most of his opponents I’ll side with Lopes to fend off any submission attempts and get the better of things on the feet. (Pick: Lopes)
Zain Bando: Sabatini will use his wrestling to gas out Lopes and may try to pull off slick submission attempts to keep Lopes, primarily a stand-up artist, guessing. (Pick: Sabatini)
Consensus: 2-2, tied