Week 9 Dynasty Stock Watch: Buy, Sell, Hold Trade Advice
We’ve crossed the midway point into Week 9 of the dynasty fantasy season, so give yourself a pat on the back for that. There have been a rash of injuries, trades and even a reminder from Calvin Ridley to take care of your mental health.
Your weekly dynasty tip is to always churn your roster.
I believe it’s critical to have a league with an abundance of roster spots. If you want to have injured reserve, taxi or practice squad spots, that’s up to you and your leaguemates. I think it’s just easier from a commissioner standpoint to have more roster spots and your XL bench can function as IR and taxi.
With that in mind, there always needs to be movement in your last few roster spots. I’m constantly following the points. If you’re playing in a league with seven starters and six bench spots, I challenge you to go deep. A minimum of 25 roster spots should be used in a standard QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-FLEX league. And, yes, I believe in no kickers, no defenses and a full platoon of IDP.
Let’s ring the dynasty stock watch opening bell:
Check Week 9 Odds at SI Sportsbook
QB Mike White, New York Jets
In recent weeks, I’ve had plenty of hot takes about young quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson. Even the folks over at r/DynastyFF on Reddit were grilling me about my Fields and Wilson opinions and, hey, everybody’s got an opinion, right? The dynasty game is simple to me: You go after the guys you want and pay as little as you can for them, and you sell the guys you don’t like and try to extract as much value as possible from their sale.
In the case of White, my mantra is if he can do it once, he can do it again. That said, we’ve got too many competing issues that should cool your jets—pun intended.
First, he’s the rookie backup to a first-round pick. Wilson will need to continue to struggle mightily for multiple weeks to cede the position to White. Even if White finished the year as a viable starter, the offseason would still carry the “White vs. Wilson” storyline and coaches being asked, “Who’s it going to be?” each week.
White’s Week 8 performance vs. the Bengals opens the conversation. But the real Jets’ superstar is the soon-to-be discussed Michael Carter, who came out red-hot, stringing together multiple highlight-worthy plays. This opened up the secondary, opened up the play action and opened up the offense.
If you feel compelled to buy-in on White, play it cool and play it slow this week. White is still a very, very low-valued player, even with a phenomenal performance under his belt. It feels like a buy and it looks like a buy, but in the end, the Jets, Wilson and his rookie status and the years-long franchise ineptitude tell me that even a broken clock is right twice a day. I’ll hold, but I probably was never holding in the first place.
Even if White is on my waiver wire, at most I’ll bid a buck if I have a very expendable roster spot available.
Win-Now: HOLD
Rebuild: HOLD
Superflex: HOLD
RB Michael Carter, New York Jets
Last week, I harped on the production, explosion and my intrigue for Bears RB Khalil Herbert. I don’t feel quite the same excitement for Carter.
He is a quick, low-to-the-ground runner. He wisely doesn’t juke around, but instead flows into the open field. I’m seeing balance, vision and quickness. His pass-catching could give him PPR league value for the next half-dozen years. But I didn’t see “it”. He did break tackles and showed tenacity. I chalk that up more to a guy who’s hungry and that’s certainly valuable. I think he’s very good and can be better, but Herbert, to me, just had a little something extra. Take that for what it's worth.
I also want to add that the Bengals’ defense did not look inspired. The Jets blockers looked like they were from early 2000s Madden games, where they would meld time and space to latch onto defenders once they were within a certain number of pixels. Cincinnati regularly allowed Carter to hit the second level on his runs before being touched, and they had no answer for him in coverage.
Even though I rank Herbert a bit higher in my personal dynasty rankings, I have the same outlook for both players. In win-now, enjoy the ride and hopefully you’ve now secured a capable RB2 or flex play. In a rebuild, I’d price-check. Carter came into this season with a significant draft capital value and it’s going to tick up significantly.
Win-Now: HOLD
Rebuild: PRICE CHECK
WR Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
Here’s where I’d like to address a bit about my philosophy about this game. I consider myself shrewd. Patience and holding onto players as they develop their game, it’s perfectly valid, but rarely is it my strategy. I want home run hitters.
I want to be the guy in the league who somehow has more than his fair share of tier 1 and 2 players. I think getting my teams to that point can only be done by playing aggressively. If you can do it with a more conservative approach, kudos! But if half the roster is “at least a year away”, it’s just not for me.
I caught a lot of flak last week about my lack of patience for Fields and Wilson. That’s fine. There are managers who are like day traders and others who hold the long view. If you honestly believe you can’t win one way or the other, that’s short-sighted. There’s plenty of ways to win a league and most of them involve luck anyway. Let’s get back on track...
In this case with Ridley, I’m worried. Let’s not pretend like he was playing really great this year. He’s playing well, absolutely. But I expected more.
The bottom line is we have a player falling short of very high expectations in a pass-heavy offense. He could return and get back to where he left off. The former Alabama star could return to dominate and exceed the offseason expectations. Ridley’s got to do what’s best for him, 100%. And I have to do what’s best for my dynasty team.
In a rebuild, I’m holding. He’s still young enough and in an offense tailored for him with plenty of garbage time success available as the Falcons struggle defensively.
In a win-now, I just lost my WR1 or WR2, so I need to reevaluate if I’m still win-now. If I am no longer in contention, I would consider selling for his value prior to his “stepping away” announcement. So, I want more than a 2022 early 1st because that’s his value now. I’d probably settle for a 2022 early 1st and 2nd.
If you’re expecting more than just the 1st, you’ll unfortunately be disappointed. If you don’t have the stomach to sell at that price, be prepared for the full range of outcomes, for better or worse. If I am a win-now and still in contention, I have to hold and hope for the best for Ridley both on and off-the-field.
I want to close by saying good luck to him and cheers to him for putting it out there. It’s not easy to tell just friends and family you need to do something like this, but to effectively tell the whole country…That’s incredible.
Win-Now: HOLD with caveats
Rebuild: HOLD
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