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NFL DFS Week 15: Picks, Plays and Values
After researching the NFL player pool at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end each week over the past few seasons, I will go on a new path for the daily games in 2021. I continue to make the projections for Sports Illustrated, and this baseline will be used to identify possible values at each position during the season.
In the daily games, we see players with low salaries post difference-maker scores each week. The key to winning is mixing a core of studs with some undervalued options that post impact scores for their price point.
Depending on the format, the goal is to find players that will score three or four times their salary to have a short at GPP (grand prize pool).
Quarterback
Top Tier: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams ($7,000/$7,600)
Stafford has been consistent over his last three starts (302/3, 295/3, and 287/3), lifting him to fourth in quarterback scoring (25.07 FPPG) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. He is on pace for 5,097 yards and 43 touchdowns while having a floor of three scores in eight matchups. Stafford already has 53 completions over 20 yards, with 16 of those plays gaining 40 yards or more. This week, his biggest concern is the COVID-19 issues sweeping through the Rams’ roster.
The Seahawks have the 12th-best defense against quarterbacks (20.82 FPPG). Six offenses (TEN – 347/0, MIN – 323/3, SF – 322/3, LAR – 365/1, ARI – 328/2, HOU – 331/1) passed for over 300 yards. Seattle continues to lose the time of possession battle, but they’ve allowed only one touchdown to a wide receiver over the past nine weeks.
If Cooper Kupp develops COVID-19, all daily bets are off for the Rams’ passing game in Week 15. In the early release of the projections, Stafford looks to be on a path for 321 yards and three touchdowns.
More: Josh Allen – 27.91 fantasy points
Value: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins ($5,700/$7,400)
New York ranks 25th in quarterback defense (22.11 FPPG), but no team has scored over 30.00 fantasy points. The Jets allow 8.3 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 22 touchdowns. Most offenses choose to run over the Jets with their running backs (2,339 combined yards with 24 touchdowns and 90 catches).
Tagovailoa passed for 273 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets in Week 11. Over his past three starts, he’s completed 80% of his passes, leading to 747 yards and five touchdowns. His only impact game (320/4) came in Week 7 at home.
Miami has a developing wide receiver (Jaylen Waddle – 86/849/4) while having top-tier options at tight end (99/1,029/2). With DeVante Parker back in the starting lineup, Tagovailoa has the tools in the passing game to shine. The Dolphins’ running backs gain only 3.3 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per catch, pointing to a winning day passing the ball by Tagovailoa.
More: Mac Jones – 17.37 fantasy points
Running Back
Top Tier: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns ($7,800/$7,500)
Over the Browns' last two games, Chubb has been held to 104 combined yards with five catches on 30 touches. His season started with 934 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 10 catches over eight weeks. With Kareem Hunt injured again, Chubb gets a bump in playing time. Over his 11 games, he has been on the field for more than 60% of the running snaps in only one game (66% in Week 14).
The Raiders dipped to 30th defending running backs (29.20 FPPG), after Kansas City’s backs gained 173 combined yards with four touchdowns and eight catches. Six different offenses scored over 30.00 fantasy points. Overall, running backs scored 18 touchdowns with 79 catches.
Chubb projects to gain 124 yards with 1.5 touchdowns and one catch. However, his ceiling could be much higher if Cleveland decides to give him even more touches.
More: Jonathan Taylor – 23.71 fantasy points
Value: James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,400/$6,400)
Robinson has been a strange ride over his last two starts. A pair of fumbles cost him many snaps in Week 12 and Week 13. Last week, the Jaguars had him on the field for 64% of their plays, but he gained only four yards on six carries. His empty production over the previous two games (3.50 and 0.40 fantasy points) pushed him down to 20th in running back scoring (12.12 FPPG) in PPR leagues. From Week 3 to Week 12 over seven games (minus Week 8 due to an early injury), Robinson gained 695 yards with seven touchdowns and 20 catches (18.79 FPPG). In Week 1, the Texans held him to 54 yards and three catches.
Houston sits 27th in running back defense (26.99 FPPG). They allow 4.7 yards per carry, with backs scoring 17 touchdowns. Eight different teams rushed for over 150 yards while offenses average 31.4 rushes per game.
Robinson will be easy to gloss over when developing your fantasy lineup for Week 15 in the daily games based on the direction of his success. In addition, Jacksonville’s quarterback play remains subpar, and the midweek firing of head coach Urban Meyer throw plenty of uncertainty into the mix. Robinson gains 4.8 yards per rush with value in scoring and pass-catching. He just needs the Jaguars to play from the lead.
More: Miles Gaskin – 18.64 fantasy points
Wide Receiver
Top Tier: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($9,000/$9,000)
Kupp looks to be on the fast track to set two NFL records in 2021, albeit with the 17-game schedule. He needs 37 catches to break Michael Thomas’s record for receptions (149) and 476 receiving yards to pass Calvin Johnson (1,964). Kupp has averaged 8.7 catches for 115 yards and 0.9 touchdowns or 25.60 fantasy points on the year. He only has one game with fewer than 90 yards receiving (5/64). In Week 5, Seattle held him to seven catches for 92 yards. The Rams have looked his way 151 times (11.6 per game).
Seattle climbed to eighth in wide receiver defense (175/2,079/7). Their worst showing vs. wideouts came earlier against the Rams (21/326). Four players (Julio Jones – 6/128, Justin Jefferson – 9/118/1, Deebo Samuel – 8/156/2, Robert Woods – 12/150, Brandin Cooks – 8/101) gained over 100 yards. That said, the Seahawks haven’t allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver over the past five matchups.
The Rams should move the ball well, and Kupp will be active in the passing game. His matchup is better than it looks based on Seattle's struggles with star wideouts.
More: Deebo Samuel – 27.35 fantasy points
Value: Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins ($6,600/$7,100)
Over the last three games, Waddle caught 26 of his 30 targets for 292 yards and one touchdown. He is on pace to catch 112 passes for 1,110 yards and five scores. Even with progression in his rookie season, Waddle only has two impact games (10/70/2 and 9/137/1). In Week 11, he had eight catches for 65 yards vs. the Jets.
Surprisingly, New York ranks seventh against wide receivers (141/1,915/9). Their success comes from failure against running backs (2,509 yards with 24 touchdowns and 90 catches) and a low number of pass attempts per game (32.7). Only two wideouts (Gabriel Davis – 3/105 and Stefon Diggs – 8/162/1) gained over 100 yards against New York.
Waddle has a rising salary, but his floor remains high. The ticket to a winning day comes from more big plays and at least one touchdown.
More: Gabriel Davis – 13.15 fantasy points
Tight End
Top Tier: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers ($7,500/$7,800)
The 49ers have figured out how to get Kittle the ball over the past two weeks, leading to a pair of impact games (9/181/2 and 13/151/1). He scored 73.70 fantasy points over this span, which was well above his path over his first eight matchups (35/425/3 – 96.40 fantasy points). Kittle has six touchdowns over his past six contests.
Atlanta is just about the league average defending tight ends (58/621/7 – 14th). Their most significant failure came against the Dolphins (14/145/1). Tampa also had success in two games (6/68/2 and 5/61/3).
The hot hand theory points to Kittle being active again while getting a bump in value in scoring.
More: Mark Andrews – 16.90 fantasy points
Value: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins ($5,000/$6,200)
This week, many fantasy owners will be looking to chase the Dolphins’ run game based on the Jets’ weakness against backs. However, Gesiski has already set career-highs in catches (59) and targets (90). Over the past six weeks, he only has 22 catches for 215 yards on 39 targets. His best play came in three games (10/86, 8/115, and 7/85/1) over the first seven weeks.
New York struggled against tight ends twice (10/106 and 6/105/2) over the past four games, pushing them to 26th in tight end defense (69/830/8). Kyle Pitts and the Falcons’ tight ends beat the Jets’ defense for two touchdowns and 189 yards on 16 catches earlier in the season.
I don’t expect a big game from Gesicki in catches or yards unless the Jets play well offensively. His sneaky upside comes from play-action scoring in close. Miami is a 10-point favorite at SI Sportsbook, pointing to a one-sided game by the Dolphins.
More: Dalton Schultz – 13.78 fantasy points
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