Bryan Reynolds, Ke'Bryan Hayes Top an Underwhelming Pirates Roster

Fantasy outlook, stats and analysis for 2022 Pittsburgh Pirates hitters and pitchers.

The Pittsburgh Pirates finished last in the NL Central over the past three seasons with a combined 149-235 record. They’ve missed the postseason for six straight years. Pittsburgh has five World Series titles (1909, 1925, 1960, 1971, and 1979). Since 1979, the Pirates have made six playoff appearances, covering 42 seasons.

They finished 28th in ERA (5.08). Pittsburgh’s relievers had 33 wins, 28 losses, and 25 saves with a 4.55 ERA (23rd). The Pirates scored the least runs (609) and home runs (124) in the majors with 60 stolen bases (22nd).

They lost 3B Colin Moran, OF Gregory Polanco, SP Steven Brault, and SP Trevor Cahill in the offseason to free agency. Pittsburgh signed C Roberto Perez and SP Jose Quintana while claiming OF Greg Allen off waivers. The Pirates acquired SP Zach Thompson for C Jacob Stallings in a minor deal.

Building a winning major league franchise requires an incredible timing of an arriving pitching staff and a core by star bats. Then, once a team looks ready to compete, they can add some complementary pieces via free agency. Pittsburgh needs to rebuild their starting rotation, and their best chance on the offensive side comes from 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, OF Bryan Reynolds, and SS Oneil Cruz. Unfortunately, they don’t have a difference-maker arm in the bullpen under 25.

The Pirates have no chance of making the postseason.

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Starting Lineup

2B Hoy Park

I’m listing Park as the potential leadoff hitter for the Pirates based on his exceptional walk rate (13.7) and possible speed (119 stolen bases over 2,056 minor league at-bats). Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .254 with 337 runs, 34 home runs, and 213 RBI. His bat showed growth in power at AAA (.328 with 44 runs, 10 home runs, 29 RBI, and eight steals over 224 at-bats). Park also had a favorable strikeout rate (18.8).

In his first experience in the majors last year, his walk rate (12.1) slipped slightly while having regression in his strikeout rate (25.5). Park had a bounce in his average hit rate (1.692 in the minors and 1.720 in Pittsburgh). However, he had a rising contact batting average that turned into a negative in his limited playing time in the majors (.278).

Fantasy Outlook

Park won’t draw any attention in fantasy leagues on draft day based on his ADP (744) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He almost has a poor man’s Cavan Biggio profile with a lower ceiling in power. I view him as a follow this year, and his playable value will be easy to identify by where Pittsburgh hits him in the starting lineup and his starting opportunity.

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .280 with 260 runs, 27 home runs, 205 RBI, and 66 stolen bases over 1,755 at-bats. He will take some walks (9.4) while minimizing the damage in strikeouts (17.0). Hayes projects to be a top defender while getting stronger to pump up his value in home runs. He stole 27 bags in 2017 at High A, but he doesn't project to offer plus speed on the bases.

After his first season at AAA in 2019 (.265 with 10 home runs, 53 RBI, and 12 steals over 427 at-bats), Pittsburgh gave him the whole month of September in 2020 to prove his worth in the majors. Hayes responded with an impressive showing (.376 with 17 runs, five home runs, and 11 RBI over 85 at-bats). His contact batting average (.492) was well above his minor league career (.346), as was his average hit rate (1.813 – 1.429).

Last year he drew plenty of attention from fantasy managers after his brief success. Unfortunately, Hayes suffered a left wrist injury two games into the season, leading to two months on the injured list. He finished the year with stats below expectations (.258 with 47 runs, five home runs, 36 RBI, and nine steals over 357 at-bats). His approach came at about the league average.

His average hit rate (1.452) fell short of his spike in September of 2020. Hayes did rank highly in hard-hit rate (45.8 – 69th), but his launch angle (2.6 – 306th) and barrel rate (5.1 – 241st) ranked poorly. He finished with the highest ground ball rate (56.7) of his career at any level.

Fantasy Outlook

Hayes has almost the same ADP (140) as 2020 in the NFBC in early February despite a disappointing year. I was hoping his price point would be higher to improve my chances of rostering him. I expect a better swing path, leading to 15 to 20 home runs and his value in steals looks higher than I initially expected. His stolen bases at third base create an edge if the rest of his production comes along for the ride.

OF Bryan Reynolds

Reynolds made a slow push through the Pirates system due to boring power and minimal speed. Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .312 with 177 runs, 28 home runs, 158 RBI, and 15 steals over 1,088 at-bats.

His bats flashed over 49 at-bats at AAA (.367 with five home runs and 11 RBI) in 2019, leading to a callup to the majors. With Pittsburgh, Reynolds performed better than expected over his first 446 at-bats (.330 with 80 runs, 16 home runs, 66 RBI, and two steals) before fading over his final 45 at-bats (.156 with no home runs and two RBI).

In 2020, his once edge in contact batting average (.405 in his minor league career and .416 in his first season with the Pirates) became a significant liability (.273). Reynolds struggled with runners on base (RBI rate – 12), but he did push his average hit rate (1.886) to an intriguing level. However, his hard-hit rate (38.0) is only league average.

Reynolds finished last season as the 31st ranked player by SIscore (3.58) for hitters while setting career-highs across the board. In addition, his strikeout rate (18.4) and walk rate (11.6) became assets. However, he finished 150th in hard-hit rate (40.8), 89th in barrel rate (10.4), and 153rd in launch angle (13.4). Reynolds is a line-drive hitter (25.6 percent), with a slightly rising fly-ball rate (35.5). His HR/FB rate (15.3) has been in a tight range with the Pirates.

Fantasy Outlook

His lack of name-value and underwhelming Statcast data prices him as the 58th drafted batter in the NFBC with an ADP of 93. My biggest question with his stats this year is the value of Pittsburgh’s offense. They scored only 609 runs last year, but Reynolds came to the plate with 420 runners on base while scoring 15.3 percent of their runs. He has a quality bat with a chance to beat the league average in four categories, and Reynolds will chip in with some steals. The debate here is a high floor or upside ceiling with another option. I’m a fan but also in a quandary on when to plunk his name off the draft board.

OF Yoshi Tsutsugo

Over his first 235 at-bats with Tampa, Tsutsugo only hit .278 when putting the ball in play, which was well below his three previous seasons in Japan (.369, .376, and .390) while having regression in his strikeout rate (28.3 – 20.8 in his career in Japan). In early May, the Rays traded him to the Dodgers after a battle with Covid-19, but Tsutsugo hit his way off their roster (3-for-25 with 12 strikeouts) while missing some time with a calf issue.

In mid-August, Pittsburgh signed him to a contract after he spent 43 games at AAA (.257/28/10/32 over 148 at-bats) in the Dodgers’ system. Tsutsugo was a much better hitter for the Pirates over his final 43 games (.268 over 20 runs, eight home runs, and 25 RBI over 127 at-bats). In addition, his strikeout rate (22.9) and walk rate (10.8) helped him have a better approach with Pittsburgh.

Over 10 seasons in Japan, he hit .284 with 205 home runs and 615 RBI over 3,460 at-bats. His highlight year came in 2016 (.322 with 44 home runs and 110 RBI over 469 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook

The cleanup cupboard looks bare for the Pirates, giving Tsutsugo an excellent opportunity to seize everyday at-bats. So far in his brief major league career, he has been a better player against lefties (.252 with four home runs and 13 RBI over 103 at-bats). His ADP (346) in the NFBC in early February points to a possible value if Tsutsugo builds off his late-season run and moves closer to his previous resume overseas. His next step is hitting for a higher batting average when putting the ball in play.

SS Oneil Cruz

Over five seasons in the minors, Cruz hit .281 with 251 runs, 49 home runs, 207 RBI, and 60 stolen bases over 1,522 at-bats. Last year he missed some development time with a right forearm issue. His bat played well at AA (.292 over 250 at-bats with 51 runs, 12 home runs, 40 RBI, and 18 steals) with no downgrade in play in his six starts at AAA (11-for-21 with 11 runs, five home runs, seven RBI, and one steal).

His walk rate (8.5) was just over league average, with some risk in his strikeout rate (24.9). Cruz pushed his contact batting average to an elite level in 2019 (.414) and 2021 (.416). He offered a low fly-ball swing path in the minors.

Pittsburgh gave Cruz two games of experience in the major last year (3-for-9 with a home run, three RBI, and four strikeouts).

Fantasy Outlook

Cruz brings an exciting combination of power and speed. He looks misplaced by his size (6’7” and 210 lbs.) at shortstop, but some scouts believe Cruz can handle the position. On the back burner, he has a pending court case in the Dominican Republic due to an accident involving the death of three people. His ADP (210) in the NFBC leaves plenty of room for him to pay a premium if Cruz can handle the jump to Pittsburgh despite minimal experience at AAA. Any investment in his bat makes sense based on his ceiling, but there will be some growing pains.

1B Michael Chavis

Over the last 2+ seasons with Boston, Chavis hit .234 with 74 runs, 25 home runs, 83 RBI, and six steals over 572 at-bats. His failure came from a high strikeout rate (33.0) while offering a below-average walk rate (6.0). Chavis has the most risk against lefties (.234 with 13 home runs and 30 RBI over 209 at-bats).

He hit .258 with 381 runs, 86 home runs, 279 RBI, and 24 stolen bases over 1,777 at-bats over seven seasons in the minors. Chavis flashed in 2017 between High A and AA (.282 with 31 home runs and 94 RBI over 471 at-bats), but his spike in power may have been tied to performance-enhancing drugs (80 game suspension in 2018). He had a high strikeout rate (25.6) in the minors with a below-bar walk rate (7.5).

Last year Chavis failed to make the Red Sox out of spring training, leading to a trade to Pittsburgh and 192 at-bats at AAA (.271 with 38 runs, 14 home runs, and 37 RBI). He missed some time with the Pirates in September with an elbow injury. Chavez finished with one walk and 42 strikeouts over 121 at-bats in the majors.

Fantasy Outlook

His bat has a wide range of outcomes in 2022. Chavis has plus power, and he may very well steal a starting job for Pittsburgh at some or multiple positions. Unfortunately, his ADP (579) puts him well over the radar of fantasy managers this draft season in the NFBC. Possible upside of 30 home runs or minimal role. Riding him while he is hot is the play here.

SS Kevin Newman

Over five seasons in the minors, he hit .287 with 15 home runs, 146 RBI, and 62 steals over 1,630 at-bats. Newman was tough to strike out (10.3 percent) with some weakness in his walk rate (7.0) in his minor league career.

After playing well in 2018 at AAA (.302 with four home runs, 35 RBI, and 28 steals over 437 at-bats), he proved to be a better player in his first entire season with Pittsburgh in 2019 (.308 with 61 runs, 12 home runs, 64 RBI, and 16 stolen bases over 493 at-bats).

Over the past two years, Newman struggled to find his way, leading to a .226 batting average with 62 runs, six home runs, 49 RBI, and six steals over 673 at-bats. He maintained his low strikeout rate (10.9) in his time in the majors while losing some value in his walk rate (5.2).

His hard-hit rate (26.2 – 302nd) is one of the lowest in baseball. Newman has a rising fly-ball rate (36.0), with no growth in his HR/FB rate (2.9) and barrel rate (1.6 – 302nd).

Fantasy Outlook

Newman is a decent major league player who can help in batting average and steals when on top of his games. However, his direction points to job loss risk and a fast sailing trip away from fantasy rosters. I don’t see a reason to take him for a dance in any league. It’s put up or shut time for his bat.

C Roberto Perez

Coming into 2019, Perez hit .205 over his first 1,207 at-bats in the majors with 21 home runs and 99 RBI. He emerged as the top catching option for Cleveland in 2019, leading to career-highs in at-bats (389), runs (46), hits (93), home runs (24), and RBI (63).

Perez landed on the injured list for three weeks with a right shoulder injury early in 2020 that bothered him for the remainder of the season.

Last year he struggled out of the gate (8-for-61 over three home runs and nine RBI). In early May, Perez suffered a finger injury, costing him two months. Four weeks later (.143 over 49 at-bats with three home runs and six RBI), a back/shoulder injury pushed him back onto the injured list for six weeks.

Fantasy Outlook

At age 33, his best days are behind him, and Perez only has one playable season on his major league resume. Only a filler C2 in deep formats if his bat shows pop early in the year.

OF Greg Allen

After researching multiple dirt devils as options to start for the Pirates in the outfield, Allen brings a more stable approach while owning a speed skill set. Over three seasons at AAA, he hit .298 with 117 runs, 12 home runs, 59 RBI, and 48 stolen bases over 584 at-bats. If Allen ever delivered these stats for an entire season in the majors, he would be a top 20 fantasy player. His walk rate (9.4) and strikeout rate (19.2) at AAA were above the league average.

In his time in the majors with similar at-bats (594), Allen hit .241 with 86 runs, eight home runs, 59 RBI, and 37 steals. However, his approach (strikeout rate – 21.3 and walk rate – 5.3) trailed his AAA resume.

Fantasy Outlook

Allen will go undrafted in all leagues except 50-man draft champion leagues in the NFBC. However, a fantasy manager needs to know his name if Pittsburgh gives him a starting job early in the season. If so, the success of his bat will determine his potential value to fantasy teams.

OF Anthony Alford

Alford looked to be a speedy player with low upside in power in the Blue Jays’ system, but his inability to limit the damage in strikeouts (26.0 percent) led to his stalling at AAA (.262 with 136 runs, 26 home runs, 112 RBI, and 48 stolen bases over 858 at-bats). Last year, he flashed better stats in the minors (.307 with 37 runs, 14 home runs, 41 RBI, and nine steals over 189 at-bats), creating surface intrigue. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate (34.5) invited disaster risk if repeated in the majors.

Over his 216 at-bats in the big leagues, Alford only hit .208 with 25 runs, eight home runs, 20 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. As expected, he whiffed 37.7 percent of the time with a below-par walk rate (6.8).

Fantasy Outlook

I don’t see any possibility where Alford earns a full-time starting job for the Pirates in 2022 for any length of time. His speed is his only excitement, but the only team where he can steal first base is with the Savannah Bananas.

OF Ben Gamel

Gamel failed to take advantage of his opportunity with the Brewers in 2019. He hit .248 with 47 runs, seven home runs, and 33 RBI over 311 at-bats.

Over the last two years, Gamel hit .245 with 11 home runs, 36 RBI, and three stolen bases over 454 at-bats. His walk rate (12.1) has top-of-the-order upside, but his strikeout rate (27.3) remains a liability.

Last year, his bat had an empty feel against lefties (.237 with one home run and seven RBI over 97 at-bats). He had one month of value (July – .333 with 15 runs, four home runs, and 11 RBI over 84 at-bats).

Gamel played better over 11 seasons in the minors (.291 with 29 home runs, 337 RBI, and 102 steals over 2,796 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook

Pittsburgh lacks the foundation players to lock down a couple of their outfielder positions, and the DH in the National League creates another opportunity for a hot bat. Gamel’s first step is solving right-handed pitching to work his way into a platoon role. At best, a short-term injury covers if he earns starting at-bats and plays well.

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Starting Pitching

SP Mitch Keller

The Pirates drafted Keller in the second round in the 2014 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school. Over seven seasons in the minors, he went 37-22 with a 3.13 ERA and 605 strikeouts over 567.1 innings. In addition, his walk rate (2.9) and strikeout rate (9.6) played well in the minors.

Keller solved AA (11-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 121 strikeouts over 120.2 innings) while needing more work at AAA (11-8 with a 3.86 ERA and 219 strikeouts over 184 innings).

An oblique issue in 2020 led to Keller missing six weeks with questionable success over five starts (2.91 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, and 16 strikeouts over 21.2 innings).

Last year, Keller struggled to find consistency in his game. He allowed four runs or more in 10 of his 23 starts (52 runs, 102 baserunners, and eight home runs over 41 innings). Keller had a 2.56 ERA and 64 strikeouts over 59.2 innings when on his game.

His arsenal had no answer for left-handed batters (.345 with two home runs, five RBI, 27 walks, and 33 strikeouts over 197 at-bats). He was a complete disaster at home (2-8 with a 7.91 ERA, 2.006 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts over 60.1 innings).

Keller’s fastball came in at 94.1 MPH. He lost the feel for his curveball (.452 BAA) and changeup (.385 BAA) while offering no edge with his slider (.261 BAA) and four-seamer (.305 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook

This season Keller needs to rebuild his career in the majors. There was a video of him throwing 100 MPH in January, but his success will continue to be up and down without better command. His ADP (558) has a don’t touch feel. However, Keller has the minor league resume and talent to make a significant step forward. The question with his arm is whether the investment is worth the ride.

SP JT Brubaker

In 2019, Brubaker battled an arm injury (forearm and right elbow) for most of the season, leading to only 27.2 innings pitched.

Over five seasons in the minors, he went 31-28 with a 3.60 ERA and 43 strikeouts over 514.1 innings. His walk rate (2.7) was favorable while delivering a low number of strikeouts (7.6 per nine). Brubaker had his best output at AAA (10-5 with 3.02 ERA and 116 strikeouts over 140 innings).

Pittsburgh gave him 11 games in 2020, with success in six of his final eight starts (3.46 ERA and 30 strikeouts over 26 innings). However, he allowed 12 runs, 18 baserunners, and four home runs over 10.1 innings in his two bad games over this span. Brubaker ran off the rails once the calendar flipped to July (7.91 ERA and 1.564 WHIP over 46.2 innings) due to 15 home runs allowed.

His walk rate (2.8) showed growth with a slight uptick in his strikeout rate (9.3). He struggled against lefties (.269 with 14 home runs over 234 at-bats). Brubaker had no value on the road (1-8 with a 6.78 ERA and 69 strikeouts over 65 innings). He missed the last four weeks with a right shoulder injury plus a right thumb issue.

Brubaker averaged 93.2 MPH with his fastball. His slider (.228 BAA) four-seamer (.235 BAA), and curveball (.182 BAA) graded well.

Fantasy Outlook

When adding a 2020 forearm issue with the fade in home runs allowed (11 off his slider), he looks trending toward a right elbow injury. His ADP (486) in the NFBC puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft formats. Brubaker should blaze his new trail in 2022, but the path could be full of fire and ice.

SP Jose Quintana

The excitement of Quintana’s arm left the building after 2016. Generally, a move to the National League helps a pitcher’s value after success in the AL.

Over six years with the White Sox, he had a 3.51 ERA and 890 strikeouts over 1,055.1 innings. Quintana went 33-23 with a 4.24 ERA and 420 strikeouts over 439.2 innings with the Cubs over four seasons.

In 2020, Quintana started the year on the injured list after having left thumb surgery in early July. In September, a lat issue cost him more playing time. He finished with only 10 innings pitched.

Last year, Quintana struggled through 63 innings (6.43, 1.730 WHIP, and 85 strikeouts). His failure came from poor command (5.0 walks per nine) and 12 home runs allowed.

His average fastball (91.6) fell in line with 2019 and 2020 but below his peak in 2017 (92.5). Quintana lost the feel for all of his pitches. At his best in his career, he threw an excellent curveball (.221 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook

This year, no one will look at Quintana in standard 12- and 15-team formats. His arm was in the game until last year based on his strikeout rate (7.9) and walk rate (2.5) in his career. He battled a left shoulder issue midseason in 2021, which was part of his regression. Nevertheless, Quintana will be in the mix for a starting job for the Pirates.

SP Bryse Wilson

Over five seasons in the minors, Wilson went 34-22 with a 3.09 ERA and 471 strikeouts over 465.2 innings. In 2019, he made 21 starts at AAA (3.42 ERA and 118 strikes over 121 innings) with an exceptional walk rate (1.9).

Wilson struggled over his four seasons in the majors. He went 6-8 with a 5.55 ERA, 1.577 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts over 116.2 innings. His home runs allowed (1.7 per nine) and walk rate (3.6) were a problem. Wilson also lost his ability to strike out batters (6.4 – 9.1 in the minors.

His average fastball (93.2) lost velocity each year in the majors. He worked off a curveball (.250 BAA) and changeup (.265 BAA) as his top secondary pitches.

Fantasy Outlook

Wilson has the talent to reach a higher ceiling, but he has to walk before he can run. Therefore, there is no reason to invest in him this draft season with no data to signal a breakthrough.

SP Miguel Yajure

Over five seasons in the minors, Yajure went 16-17 with a 2.60 ERA and 291 strikeouts over 339.2 innings. He blew out his right arm at age 19, which led to TJ surgery and a missed season in 2018.

In 2019 while pitching at High A and AA (two starts), Yajure went 9-6 with a 2.14 ERA and 133 strikeouts over 138.2 innings. He walked only 1.9 batters per nine innings. His strikeout rate (8.6) was the best of his short minor league career.

Last year Yajure battled a right elbow/forearm in June, leading to 10 weeks on the injured list. He pitched well on the mound at AAA (3.09 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts over 47.2 innings). Yajure pitched poorly over his first seven games in the majors (6.14 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 22 innings).

His average fastball (91.0) came in below the league average. Yajure's path to success comes from a plus changeup (.222 BAA) while also mixing in a four-seamer, cutter, slider, and curveball. His ability to work off four pitches and not rely on a big fastball bodes well for success early in his career.

Fantasy Outlook

The Pirates may have stolen an elite arm with Yajure. His velocity should improve once he fills out, which creates even more of an edge with his changeup. However, last year's injury could be a red flag for another TJ surgery. Viable follow with upside if Yajure wins a starting job.

SP Quinn Priester

Pittsburgh drafted Priester 18th overall out of high school in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft.

He posted a 3.19 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 36.2 innings over his first season in the minors. Last year at High-A, he went 7-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 98 strikeouts over 97.2 innings.

His fastball can touch the upper 90s with a pitching motion that should lead to excellent command. In addition, Priester has a plus curveball, and his sinker creates swings and misses at the bottom of the strike zone.

Fantasy Outlook

Once he develops his changeup, his ticket will be punched to Pittsburgh. Priester should develop into a major league ace. But, for now, he needs more experience in the minors, and the Pirates won’t push him too hard as they aren’t ready to compete for a championship.

SP Roansy Contreras

After a breakthrough season at High A in 2019 (12-5 with a 3.33 ERA and 113 strikeouts over 132.1 innings), the Pirates acquired Contreras last year in their deal for SP Jameson Taillon. He pitched well over 12 starts at AA in 2021 (2.65 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 54.1 innings) before landing on the injured list with a right forearm issue. Pittsburgh gave him one start at AAA (one run over 3.2 innings and six strikeouts) and an appearance in the majors (no runs over three innings with four strikeouts).

His average fastball (96.6) was elite in his brief appearance in the majors. In addition, Contreras features a swing and miss slider while developing a curveball and slider.

Fantasy Outlook

Pittsburgh should move him to AAA, with an eye on pitching in the majors early in the season. However, forearm issues can turn into elbow issues and possibly TJ surgery. His ADP (481) in the NFBC in early February puts him in the flier range with more draft momentum if his spring reports are positive.

Bullpen

RP David Bednar

Bednar pitched well in the Padres’ system over four seasons, but he never reached AAA. Bender posted a 2.70 ERA, 303 strikeouts, and 39 saves over 219.2 innings. His strikeout rate (12.4) and walk rate (2.9) offered closing upside.

After four appearances in 2020 with San Diego, he allowed five runs and 13 baserunners over 6.1 innings. Pittsburgh acquired him last January in a three-way deal with the Mets.

Bednar pitched well in his first entire season with the Pirates. However, he earned only three saves despite posting closing stats (2.23 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. After the All-Star break, his arm had the most value (1.05 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 25.2 innings).

His average fastball (97.4) was elite while offering a plus slider (.148 BAA). Batters hit .241 vs. his sinker.

Fantasy Outlook

Pittsburgh should hand him the keys for the ninth inning this season. His ADP (201) ranks as the 74th pitcher off the board. Bednar has the best arm to close this bullpen, and I expect repeated success in ERA and WHIP with a chance at 25 saves.

RP Nick Mears

Over three seasons in the minors, Mears went 7-5 with a 3.63 ERA, 102 strikeouts, and six saves over 69.1 innings. He struggled last year at AAA (5.30 ERA) while showing strength in his strikeouts (25 over 18.2 innings). However, his walk rate (5.4 at AAA and 3.6 in his career) regressed as Mears moved up through the minors.

With Pittsburgh, home runs allowed (five over 23.1 innings) and walks (5.0 per nine) led to a disaster ERA (5.00) and WHIP (1.629).

His average fastball (95.9) graded well, but batters drilled his curveball (.306 BAA). Mears looks miles away from closing with a one-pitch arsenal (four-seamer – .241 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook

Pittsburgh should use Mears in a setup role this year with the hopes of gaining more confidence. Once he improves his fastball command in and out of the strike zone, his arm will become relevant late in games.

RP Blake Cederlind

It took two quick seasons in the minors for the Pirates to move out of the starting rotation (7.04 ERA). Then, in 2019, Cederlind started to hit his stride in the bullpen (5-2 with a 2.28 ERA, 55 strikeouts, and four saves over 59.1 innings).

Pittsburgh gave him five appearances in 2020, leading to a 4.50 ERA and four strikeouts over four innings. Last year, Cederlind suffered a right elbow injury that required TJ surgery in March.

His average fastball came in at 98.7 MPH while only throwing a cutter as his secondary pitch.

Over his four seasons in the minors, he had a 4.93 ERA, 178 strikeouts, and eight saves over 184.1 innings. His walk rate (4.5) was better in the bullpen in 2019 (3.6) while striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings.

Fantasy Outlook

Cederlind won’t be ready until midseason, but it will take him some time to figure out how to throw enough quality strikes in the big moments of the game. However, if his cutter is for real, he may come arm quicker than expected. 

• AL EAST: Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays
• AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins
• AL WEST: Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers
• NL EAST: Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals
• NL CENTRAL: Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers