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Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer Are Popular Starting Pitchers by Fantasy ADP
Injuries to the front-end starting pitching pool have led to less fight for the second-tier aces in 2022. However, controlling ERA and WHIP is a big part of having success in fantasy baseball. Here’s a look at the top 12 pitchers projected at Sports Illustrated this draft season ranked by SIscore:
MORE: 2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
The average of the top 12 starting pitchers came to a 14-7 record with a 2.90 ERA, 1.044 WHIP, and 237 strikeouts over 194.8 innings.
Here’s a look at the best 12 starting pitchers from last season:
My projections for this season almost match the final results for the top 12 starters in 2021.
In 2021, 12 pitchers had an ADP inside the first 30 draft selections. Based on the current draft flow, I suspect that only eight pitchers will go over the first two rounds of 12-team leagues. With each spring training pitching injury, draft flow can change quickly.
Despite some regression in his ERA (3.23), Gerrit Cole consistently is the first pitcher drafted in 2022. He has 58 wins over his previous 107 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 0.988 WHIP, and 939 strikeouts over 667 innings. However, since arriving in New York, Cole has had a spike in home runs allowed (38 over 254.1 innings).
Corbin Burnes moved into an electric area last season. He led the National League in ERA (2.43) and K/9 (12.6), thanks to his impressive growth in his command. The next step in Burnes’ development is pitching deeper in games. His resume of success is relatively short, but he looks poised to be a dominating arm for the Brewers again this season.
League format is critical to evaluating the value of Shohei Ohtani. As a pure pitcher with 30 starts, he looks ready to be a sensational investment, but his batting production makes him a challenging player to manage. As a result, I have Ohtani ranked as the 13th starting pitcher in 2022 (13-4 with a 2.93 ERA and 217 strikeouts over 174 innings). However, he should be the most valuable player in bi-weekly formats and daily leagues.
Max Scherzer has an excellent career resume while coming off an outstanding season. The Mets want to win at all costs, and their offense should provide plenty of run support for their pitching staff. The only knock for me with Scherzer is that I no longer consider him a workhorse arm. Nevertheless, even with 32 starts and close to 200 innings, he will be a solid foundation arm to a fantasy team.
Over the past two weeks in the high-stakes market, Brandon Woodruff jumped in front of Walker Buehler by ADP in the NFBC. He brings excellent command and strikeout ability, but Woodruff needs to win more games to match some of the best arms in the game.
Buehler feels like the next stud ace for the Dodgers after pitching over 225 innings (including the playoffs) last year. Unfortunately, his drop in strikeout rate (9.2) may be why his name doesn’t shine as brightly as it should in recent drafts.
Once Jacob deGrom stepped on the mound in spring training, his stock started to push back up draft boards. When healthy, he is the best in the game. The only question is, how many innings does his elbow have left before breaking down?
Fantasy baseball rankings: Hitters | Pitchers
Zack Wheeler started spring training with a right shoulder issue, leading to him sliding in drafts. He finished with the best season of his career in 2021 while also pitching well over 11 starts the previous year. Wheeler threw in the bullpen on March 20th, pointing to more stability in his value.
The recent reports about Shane Bieber have been positive, but he has yet to take the mound in spring training (3/20). His elite command sets a high floor in his ERA and WHIP, but wins could be more challenging with the Guardians offering a below-par offense. I expect his ADP (31) to rise over the next two weeks.
Aaron Nola looks the part of a top-tier arm based on his command and strikeout ability. Unfortunately, he had too many disaster innings last season, leading to a losing ERA (4.63). Also, home runs allowed have crept more into his game over the previous three years. Sometimes a fantasy drafter needs to invest in the good, hoping that the negative days regress the following season.
Julio Urias led the majors in wins (20) last year while pushing to an elite level in ERA (2.96) and WHIP (1.018). He also worked in the offseason to get in better shape. This year, the only concern is how Urias responds in 2022 after tossing a career-high in innings (205.1) last year.
Over the last three seasons, Sandy Alcantara averaged 6.2 innings over his 72 starts, making him one of the higher volume arms in the league. He’s blessed with an electric fastball and improving command, but Alcantara has struggled to win games in the majors (20-34). However, with a higher strikeout rate, his stats should reach a new ceiling in 2022.
I’m fading Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, and Logan Webb this draft season for different reasons. All three pitchers had breakthrough years in 2021. Ray has the best chance of repeating, but his career resume in command and WHIP risk has me a bit skittish to invest in him as a foundation ace. Gausman moves out of pitcher's park, and he’ll be pitching in a tougher hitting division. He showed growth for sure, but his resume of success is relatively short, inviting more mistakes finding the seats and regression in his ERA and WHIP. The strike for Webb is his history of pitching over 105 innings (only once over eight seasons).
Chris Sale had yet to begin throwing due to a stress fracture in his ribs. His timetable for a return has been released, leading to a free-falling ADP. It’s all about reading between the lines with his injury and his new draft value.
Freddy Peralta pushed his game higher last year despite not throwing more strikes. Batters only hit .165 against him, which was better than Burnes (.201) and Woodruff (.200). With more strikes thrown, Peralta has the arsenal to beat his current ADP (53).
There has been plenty of excitement with the right arm of Dylan Cease, but I sense some WHIP risk based on his career path and command. I expect plenty of strikeouts, but Cease has never had a walk rate under 3.5 in any season in his pro career. He has a live arm, which could come quicker than expected, but I won't fight for him in drafts.
Max Fried and Jose Berrios bring solid SP2 arms while coming off growth seasons. In addition, they pitch for teams that will score plenty of runs, helping their win totals. I like the direction of both pitchers and expect winning seasons again in 2022.
Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz offer electric arms, but they pitch for the micromanaging Rays. I’m concerned with the number of innings Tampa will allow Baz to pitch (around 130). McClanahan looks poised to climb the pitching rankings, and his next step in workload should be about 160 innings. Both options should pitch at a high level when on the mound, but wins may fall should of expectations.
Follow-through should be expected with the left arm of Trevor Rogers. His next step should be 180 innings pitched with improved command and more strikeouts.
Justin Verlander may miss a start or two in the regular season, but he looks poised to regain his workhorse ways. He’s had plenty of time to recover from his TJ surgery, and his velocity has been sharp in spring training. In the high-stakes market, the wise guys will move him up the draft board if they miss on a front-end starter.
I listed Alek Manoah on my breakout pitcher list. He looks like a cheat ace or an exceptional SP3 for a drafter looking to build a strong pitching team. Manoah checked many boxes in his rookie season, with many more coming over his career.
Jack Flaherty developed a tear in his right shoulder that required a PRP injection. His return date is unknown, along with his 2022 outlook. His ADP will be free falling in drafts. Finding a safe area to draft him will be difficult even with a reasonable timetable back to the mound. I expect Flaherty to miss a couple of months at a minimum.
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