Philadelphia Eagles 2022 Fantasy Outlook: Growth for DeVonta Smith

Two great receivers, stocked backfield and excellent tight end give Jalen Hurts everything he needs

Shawn Childs | Jun 13, 2022

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Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles look poised to move up the pass rankings after trading for WR A.J. Brown just before this year’s draft. His presence allows WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert to see weaker coverage on more plays. QB Jalen Hurts already has a high floor as a runner (139/794/10), and his passing production may jump by 25% if the Eagles allow him to throw the ball more often. Last year, Philly fans pined for their offense to run the ball at a higher rate after starting the season with a 2-5 record. From Week 8 to Week 15, over seven games, the Eagles went 5-2 while averaging 214 rushing yards and 13 combined touchdowns on the ground. With improved defensive play, Philly has the offensive talent to challenge the Dallas Cowboys for the NFC East title.

OFFENSE

The Eagles ran the ball 52.7% of the time while leaving some rushing stats on the table between Week 3 and Week 6 (12/64, 19/103/1, 22/91/2, and 19/100/2). Over their other 13 matchups, Philly averaged 36.8 rushes but only 25.9 passes over their final 11 games. With minimal improvement in the run and pass games, the Eagles could reach 7,000 offense yards (3,000 rushing and 4,000 passing), giving them a top-tier offense.

QUARTERBACKS

Jalen Hurts – click here for fantasy projections

Other options: Gardner Minshew, Reid Sinnett, Carson Strong

RUNNING BACKS

Even with the Eagles’ quarterbacks being active in the run game (149/803/10), their running backs finished 1,910 yards and 15 scores on the ground on 402 carries. Their pass-catching opportunity (74/513/1) improved from 2020 (60/438/1), but their backs gained only 6.9 yards per catch.

Miles Sanders – click here for fantasy projections

Kenneth Gainwell
Gainwell struggled to get consistent snaps from game to game in his rookie season. As a result, he finished with starting fantasy value in six contests (12.30, 20.90, 15.10, 19.70, 18.70, and 16.50 fantasy points in PPR leagues). Over his other 12 games, Gainwell only had 27 rushes for 71 yards and one touchdown plus 12 catches for 115 yards. He finished last season with 544 combined yards, six touchdowns, and 33 catches.

Fantasy outlook: Last year, Philadelphia gave Gainwell goal-line rushes on passing downs while using him off the bench in chaser games as a pass-catcher. I project him to be the handcuff to Miles Sanders this season, increasing to about 10 touches a game. Gainwell has an ADP of 142 in the NFFC in mid-June as the 48th running back drafted. He should deliver RB3 value this season.

Boston Scott
Over the past two years, Scott has been a serviceable player off the bench for the Eagles. However, he finished with only 13 catches for 83 yards in 2022, showing that Kenneth Gainwell ranked ahead of him on passing downs. With Miles Sanders injured, Scott picked up seven touchdowns in five games, but Philly had him on the field for more than 50% of their snaps in only two matchups. He only scored 57.60 fantasy points in PPR leagues over nine games without his touchdowns.

Fantasy outlook: Scott should be found on the waiver wire in most fantasy formats this year. He needs an injury to increase his fantasy value and opportunity.

Other options: Jason Huntley, Kennedy Brooks

WIDE RECEIVERS

The wide receiver opportunity in Philadelphia ranked poorly over the past three seasons. They finished with a three-year low in catches (149) and targets (239), but they did show growth in yards per catch (13.4). The addition of A.J. Brown should invite more targets to the Eagles’ wideout in 2022.

A.J. Brown – click here for fantasy projections

DeVonta Smith
In his rookie season, Smith operated as the Eagles’ WR1, leading to 64 catches for 916 years and five touchdowns on 104 targets. His catch rate (61.5) needs work while delivering his best two games in receiving yards at home (7/122 and 5/116/1). He finished with three other playable outings (6/71/1, 7/77, 4/66/2, and 5/80/1). Smith finished with 11 starts with six or fewer targets.

Fantasy outlook: Smith ranked 30th in wide receiver scoring (186.60) in PPR formats. The addition of A.J. Brown swings some coverage away from him, helping maintain his rookie floor in targets. His ADP (81) in the NFFC prices Smith as a backend WR3 (35th wide receiver). I see growth rather than regression in 2022, making him the more attractive Eagles’ wideout to own based on draft value. I will set his bar at 70 catches for 1,050 yards with a slight bump in scoring.

Zach Pascal
The Colts gave Pascal 212 targets over the previous three seasons, leading to WR4 results (41/607/5, 44/629/5, and 38/384/3). He has one missed game in his four years. All three of his touchdowns in 2021 came over the first two games (4/43/2 and 5/38/1), but Pascal failed to score over 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats over his next 14 matchups.

Fantasy outlook: Pascal has enough experience and success in his career to win the WR3 role for the Eagles. His ceiling looks like 35 catches for 450 yards with short touchdowns.

Quez Watkins
Watkins jumped Jalen Reagor on the depth chart in 2021. After a minimal rookie season (7/106/1 on 13 targets), he finished 61st in wide receiver scoring (116.00 fantasy points – 43/643/1 on 62 targets). Watkins only had two games (4/33 and 5/84/1) with more than two catches while gaining over 100 yards in Week 2 (2/117).

Fantasy outlook: Eagles used Watkins as their deep wideout (15.0 yards per catch) last year, and his catch rate (69.4) should command more chance. He has possible flash value in games when Philly is forced to throw the ball.

Jalen Reagor
In his rookie season over 11 games, Reagor caught 31 of his 54 targets for 396 yards and one touchdown. He gained fewer than 60 yards in every game while gaining over 20 yards on four catches. Last season Reagor finished with 33 catches for 299 yards and two touchdowns on 57 targets while gaining only 9.1 yards per catch.

Fantasy outlook: In his third year with the Eagles, Reagor has a lot to prove. The structure of Philly’s receiving corps helps his coverage, but his opportunity won’t be fantasy worthy in many games. More of a player to follow than a draft-day target.

Other options: Greg Ward, Deon Cain, John Hightower

TIGHT ENDS

The Eagles have been one of the top teams using their tight ends for many seasons. Despite a high floor in production, they set three-year lows in catches (83), receiving yards (1,074), and targets (120). Part of the decline is fewer passing attempts; the other is a midseason trade of Zach Ertz in 2020.

Dallas Goedert
In his first season with the lead tight end role for the Eagles, Goedert caught 56 of his 76 targets for 830 yards and four touchdowns while missing two games (concussion and Covid-19). Despite averaging only 5.1 targets, he ranked eighth in tight end scoring (165.00) in PPR formats. Goedert gained over 100 yards in two matchups (6/105/2 and 7/135).

Fantasy outlook: There is a lot to like about Goedert, but without more targets, he can’t reach elite tight end status. His ADP (79) in the NFFC ranks him eighth at tight end. With six targets per game in 2022, Goedert projects to catch 70 passes for 900 yards and five to seven scores.

Other options: Jack Stoll, Tyreek Jackson, Grant Calcaterra

KICKER

Jake Elliott
2021 was the best season for Elliott in field goals (90.9%) and extra-point success (100.0%), and field goal chances (30-for-33). He made 14 kicks from 50 yards or more on his 23 tries in his career.

Fantasy outlook: The Eagles should convert many possessions in the red zone to touchdowns with their run game. If so, Elliott will have a drop-off in field goal chances, leading to only matchup value in the fantasy market.

COACHING

Nick Sirianni went 9-8 in his first season as the head coach of the Eagles. He spent the previous three seasons as the offensive coordinator for the Colts while having 13 years of NFL coaching experience.

Philadelphia climbed to 12th in points scored (444 – 110 more than 2020) while improving from 24th to 14th in offensive yards.

Shane Steichen returns for his second season to run the Eagles’ offense, the same position he held for the Chargers in 2019 and 2020. Most of his 11 years of coaching experience came in Los Angeles and San Diego.

Philly gave Jonathan Gannon the keys to run their defense in 2021. He spent the previous three seasons in Indianapolis as their cornerbacks' coach. Gannon is the third coach in Philadelphia who is under 40 years old. His path to the NFL started with the Falcons in 2007 (defensive quality control) before transitioning to a scout. From 2012 to 2017, he worked in the Titans and Vikings systems.

The Eagles allowed 385 points (18th) last year, an improvement of 33 points from 2020. However, their defense did show more growth in yards allowed (10th).

FREE AGENCY

The top offseason additions were LB Haason Reddick, CB James Bradberry, LB Kyzir White, and WR Zach Pascal. The only player of value lost was CB Steven Nelson.

DRAFT

Philadelphia only had five selections in the 2022 NFL Draft. They added three players to their defense (DT Jordan Davis – 1.13, LB Nakobe Dean – 3.19, and LB Kyron Johnson – 6.2). In the second round, the Eagles address their offensive line with C Cam Jurgens. The final player came with the 20th pick in the sixth round (Grant Calcaterra).

OFFENSIVE LINE

The Eagles led the NFL in rushing yards (2,715) with 25 rushing touchdowns. They averaged 4.9 yards per carry while gaining over 20 yards per rush in 17 runs.

Philadelphia slid to 29th in passing yards (3,585) while gaining only 7.3 yards per pass attempt. They finished with 20 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions while seeing their quarterbacks sacked 31 times (34 fewer than 2020).

Jordan Mailata outplayed Andre Dillard last season, earning him 13 starts at left tackle. He excelled in pass protection and run blocking while Dillard missed 10 games in the regular season. RT Lane Johnson has a long career of success, but he missed 13 games over the past two seasons. C Jason Kelce regressed over the previous three seasons in pass blocking while remaining an edge in the run game. The guard position ranks below the league average. This offensive line will excel in run blocking while having some moments of weakness in pass protection.

DEFENSE

The Eagles improved to 9th in rushing yards allowed (1,834 yards), with opponents averaging 26.9 rushes. They allowed 4.0 yards per carry with 18 touchdowns and 10 runs over 20 yards.

Philly climbed to 11th in passing yards allowed (3,756) while allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Quarterbacks tossed 28 touchdowns with 12 interceptions while being only sacked 29 times.

The defensive line of Philadelphia doesn’t have an elite player in any area based on last season's stats. Rookie DT Jordan Davis and DE Josh Sweat are the two players with the most upside. LB Haason Reddick should beef up the pass rush (23.5 sacks over the past two seasons) while chipping in with 131 tackles. The combination of LB T.J. Edwards and LB Kyzir White had 274 tackles last season. Darius Slay remains one of the better players at cornerback. I don’t see an edge at either safety position, while CB James Bradberry should help in coverage.

I see more risk than reward with Philly’s defense, making them only a matchup option in 2022. They rank 21st in the early draft season in the NFFC.

Published Jun 13, 2022

SHAWN CHILDS