Bill Belichick Praises Mac Jones, but Will It Translate to Fantasy?

Second-year QB may be ready to take the next step, but the Patriots don’t have many weapons around him.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick praised Mac Jones's “dramatic improvement” Tuesday morning, the day before New England’s first official practice of training camp.

"He's made tremendous strides...his offseason work has been significant."

Bill Belichick on the progression of Patriots quarterback Mac Jones. #Patriots | https://t.co/Ny4w3p7ptu pic.twitter.com/HKpGKIm80Q

— NESN (@NESN) July 26, 2022

Belichick, not known to be effusive with praise, commended Jones’s “physical work and conditioning, mechanics, footwork, understanding of our offense (and) opponent defenses."

Perhaps most importantly, Belichick praised the mental aspect of his quarterback’s game, saying, “he's starting from a much, much higher point this year from where he started last year. His offseason work has been significant, and I think everyone recognizes how well he prepares and how much further along he was than a year ago."

Sounds like Jones doesn’t need a homework clause. Take note, Kyler Murray. 

Jones and the Patriots surpassed expectations last year, finishing the season with a 10-7 record. Much of that success was due to an incredible run beginning in Week 7, with the Patriots winning eight of their last 11 as Jones proved to be an impressively accurate passer in his debut NFL season.

Jones, drafted 15th overall by New England in 2021, posted the second-highest completion percentage (67.6%) and the sixth-highest passer rating (92.5) for a rookie quarterback with at least 300 attempts in NFL history. He finished the season as the fantasy QB18, passing for 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns.

Should we expect another step forward from the sophomore QB?

Despite Belichick’s effusive comments, fantasy managers should tap the brakes. The Patriots also made headlines this week for something they didn’t do–name an offensive coordinator. And that could be the biggest concern for Jones’s fantasy ceiling.

The @Patriots have announced coaching staff titles (finally) ...

• Joe Judge is offensive ass't/quarterbacks.
• Matt Patricia is senior football advisor/offensive line.
• Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo are LBs coaches.

So ... New England doesn't have an OC or DC (by title).

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) July 21, 2022

Does Belichick know how to win football games? Yes.

Does he care if your fantasy QB wins your week? No.

Fantasy coaches should recall when the Patriots defeated the Bills 14-10 in Week 14 last season. Jones attempted a total of three passes in that game.

For Patriots fans, a win is a win, but with Josh McDaniels now in Sin City, If the defensive-minded Belichick is calling the plays, or at least heavily involved in calling the plays, it will likely put a cap on Jones’s fantasy upside. If Belichick turns duties over to Matt Patricia or Joe Judge, I’m not sure that would be much better.

Another interesting note: The New England Patriots have only passed for more than 5,000 yards once in Belichick’s 22-year tenure (2011). In 11 of his 22 seasons, the Patriots have passed for fewer than 4,000 yards.

Combine that with the fact that New England did so little to improve in the offseason. The injury-prone Davante Parker is unlikely to unlock Jones’s upside. Jones remains a QB2 for superflex leagues.

However, if you’re looking at the Patriots' win total, consider the over. Las Vegas has the line at 8.5, and if history is any guide, the Patriots will find a way to exceed expectations.