Top Fantasy Wide Receivers: Comparing Player Props With ADP and Rankings

Using over/under season totals to project fantasy points gives us another set of data to prepare for drafts.

In the wild world of fantasy football, there is a wide range of opinions and projections to make future decisions about players. The goal is to understand previous results, current team structures, and each player’s skill set to develop mental rankings of the current inventory. In addition, the growth of the sports betting market adds another untapped market to compare each player’s potential outcome.

• Players Props vs. ADP: QB | RB | WR

Below is a list of the top 12 wide receivers betting data converted to fantasy points. I pulled almost all the data points for 49 wideouts (highlighted in green). For anyone missing an over/under line, I backed out a number based on their previous stats and their other given line for either catches or receiver yards.

Wide receivers 1 to 12

Note: PPR scoring

When reviewing the adjusted fantasy points from the sportsbook (actual data for the top 12 wideouts), the 12th ranked wide receiver had a projection of 246.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Over the last three seasons, that position in the ranking finished with these point totals:

• 2019 – 237.40 fantasy points
• 2020 – 248.50 fantasy points
• 2021 – 246.80 fantasy points

Based on this information, these are some betting opportunities for the backend for the top-tier wideouts.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

Adams holds a slight edge over Stefon Diggs in the National Fantasy Football Championship, but drafters continue to select Diggs over Adams in the best ball leagues at Underdog fantasy. The sportsbooks have him rated over Ja’Marr Chase as well. Over the past two seasons in Green Bay, Adams ranked first and second in fantasy scoring in PPR formats (359.40 and 344.30). To reach his 2022 projections, he would need to produce just over 80% of his stats over the past two seasons. In the betting market, all his lines have a chance to go over, but nothing looks out of line.

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Even with a top four wide receiver ranking in projected stats, the sportsbook has Chase to decline by almost 10.86% in a developing offense. His over/under total for catches (84.5) looks favorable. We saw Justin Jefferson improve all his stats from 2020 (88/1,400/7) to 2021 (108/1,616/10) while offering a similar pedigree. I expect Chase to be the best wide receiver in the game this year while having him projected to catch 99 balls for 1,628 yards and 14 scores. His best play is the over in his catches, but I expect him to be a win going away in all categories.

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts

In the fantasy football market, Pittman is a highly-sought player based on his NFFC ranking (13) and my projections (11). The sportsbook over/under stats converted to fantasy points (227.1) place him ninth at wideout. Last year his final totals in catches (88) and receiving yards (1,082) beat his betting lines for 2022. The Colts have a below-par tight end with question options at WR2 and WR3. Pittman should outperform his ADP while delivering plays on the over in all areas, thanks to an upgrade at quarterback in the offseason.

Wide receivers 13 to 24

With adjusted sportsbook data, the 24th-ranked wide receiver (DK Metcalf) is projected to score 195.60 fantasy points in PPR formats. In 2021, that ranking finished with 220.10 fantasy points (212.70 in 2019 and 212.40 in 2020). Metcalf was the only player on this list without a projection for receiving yards.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

His ranking (18th) in receiving stats from sportsbooks looks out of line compared to his ADP (7th) at the NFFC and my projections (4th) due to a significant part of his value coming in the run game.

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

Brown was a top 10 wideout drafted in the high-stakes market. However, he ranks 15th in the sportsbooks with reasonable projections (71/1,026/7), while I have by far the lowest outlook (25th). He has a high ceiling, but the Eagles will run the ball a lot this season, leading to below-par targets in many games.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears

Mooney fits the backend WR2 profile in PPR formats but ranks lower at wide receiver in the NFFC (25th) and my projections (32nd). His early line is like the sportsbook laying his over/under as “the public.” The wise guys drafting suggests the best side of his outlook is the under.

Wide receivers 25 to 36

The three players that I’m the highest in this grouping are Juju Smith-Schuster (17th), Michael Thomas (19th), and Elijah Moore (18th). I expect each option to beat their sports betting line in a big way in 2022.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

Rarely have I seen Sutton slide even a half of a round in the NFFC drafts. He consistently goes in the third round with his WR23 ranking, falling in line with my outlook. The sportsbooks look to be trailing his projections (63/926/6). Based on his price point, I can’t pull the trigger on Sutton in drafts, but there is an opportunity on the over in the catches and touchdowns. Russel Wilson is a significant upgrade at quarterback.

Wide receivers 27 to 48

It’s interesting to see four rookie wide receivers (Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Skyy Moore) between 43rd and 46th in the betting market. Burks has the best chance to start, leading to favorable projections at Sports Illustrated (33rd). The other three young players have exciting ceilings, but they should begin the season as WR3 in their respective offenses. Moore has the best path to move up the depth chart in Kansas City, plus they have an elite quarterback.

Julio Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Despite having the 49th listing at the sportsbook (many other potential wideouts don’t have over/under lines), Jones doesn’t project to be a WR4 in the NFFC (79th) or my rankings (60th). However, he is a player I must think about over the next couple of weeks as Tom Brady may unlock the scoring part of his stat line. Additionally, the Bucs don’t have great options at tight end, so Jones could fill more of the void left open by the loss of Rob Gronkowski.

By looking at a third market (sports betting), fantasy drafters may gain valuable insight into some players’ expected value. At the same time, there could be some money to be made by knowing more than the book on the 2022 NFL player pool.