Fantasy Football Draft Strategies: Upside vs. Risk By Round - Christian McCaffrey Concerns

Do you have CMC? Christian McCaffrey concerns. Breaking down the upside and risk picks of the first 10 rounds.

"Upside" is defined as "the positive or favorable aspect of something." On the flip side, "risk" is defined as "a situation involving exposure to danger." Fantasy fans will encounter both in drafts, and deciding to go with the upside or take a risk can be the difference between a team that contends for a title or is a cellar dweller.

With that in mind, here’s my look at the players with the biggest risk or upside in each of the first 10 rounds based on the ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.

ROUND 1

Biggest upside: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings (1.04): If you're a projected first-round choice, you've already proven your worth in the stat sheets. But out of all the top picks, Jefferson might have the highest upside. Based on his amazing stats in his first two NFL seasons, that might be hard to understand, but playing in the Vikings' pass-heavy attack could push him past Cooper Kupp this season.

Biggest risk: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers (1.02): McCaffrey is the biggest risk in fantasy football this season. He's played in just 10 combined games during the last two years due to injuries, yet he's still picked second overall in most fantasy drafts. That's because he's averaged nearly 26 fantasy points per game over the last four seasons (42 games). CMC is your main man if you're not afraid of risk.

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ROUND 2

Biggest upside: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos (2.09): Williams has the talent to be a top-5 fantasy running back, but you can get him toward the end of Round 2 in drafts. Of course, the concern is Melvin Gordon's presence in the backfield. Reports suggest that the Broncos want to feature Williams more this season, but look for the touch share to favor him 60-40 or even 65-35. The upside here is enormous.

Biggest risk: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants (2.05): Barkley has played in 15 games the last two seasons due to injuries, and his numbers haven't been great when he did suit up. In fact, he's averaged an unimpressive 3.5 yards per rush attempt during that time. The presence of new coach Brian Daboll should be a positive for Barkley regarding his statistical potential, but questions remain about his outlook.

ROUND 3

Biggest upside: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts (3.04): Pittman is one of my favorite breakout candidates in fantasy land this season. The No. 17 wide receiver a year ago, he should see an even bigger increase in the stat sheets with veteran quarterback Matt Ryan under center. Colts wide receivers coach Reggie Wayne texted me that Pittman “will eat” in the offense, and I’m buying into all the hype.

Biggest risk: Cam Akers, RB, Rams (3.09): Akers has shown flashes of potential in his NFL career, but can he meet heightened expectations this season? He's splitting first-team offensive snaps in training camp with Darrell Henderson, and coach Sean McVay has said, "I look at it as we've got two starting backs." If that comes to fruition, it'll be tough for Akers to be worth a third-round price tag.

ROUND 4

Biggest upside: D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers (4.02): Moore has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in fantasy football, posting between 1,100-1,200 yards and four touchdowns in each of the last three years. I can see him exceeding those totals,, as the Panthers have made what I see as an upgrade at quarterback with Baker Mayfield. Moore could push for low No. 1 wideout numbers.

Biggest risk: Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders (4.10): Jacobs, who ranked 12th in fantasy points among backs last season, appears destined to be in a committee with Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden in 2022. That’s been the philosophy of new coach Josh McDaniels, and it could hold Jacobs back in the stat sheets. By comparison, he’s coming off the board at 74.8 at the NFFC this month.

ROUND 5

Biggest upside: Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos (5.04): Will it be Sutton or Jerry Jeudy? That's the big question coming out of Denver regarding the team's best fantasy wideout. The answer, at least from most beat writers I've talked to about it, is Sutton. He has gained a great rapport with Russell Wilson in camp, and it's moved him up rank lists heading into drafts. Sutton could be a real breakout star.

Biggest risk: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs (5.06): I will forever regret pushing Edwards-Helaire as a potential fantasy star coming out of college. While he has shown some pop, CEH has dealt with injuries and inconsistent production. A committee with some mix of Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon and Ronald Jones seems inevitable, making it tough to trust Edwards-Helaire at a fifth-round price.

ROUND 6

Biggest upside: Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills (6.08): Davis is one of the most popular breakout candidates in fantasy land, which shows in his August ADP data. He's risen into Round 6 on Fantasy Football Calculator, and the high-stakes folks are pulling the trigger on him at 44.4 in the last two weeks. A playmaker locked into the No. 2 wideout spot in Buffalo, Davis is in line to make some real noise.

Biggest risk: Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (6.02): Sanders has been touted as a potential fantasy star, but he's failed to meet expectations after three NFL seasons. I doubt he'll come out and become a stud this year, as Sanders has missed time in camp with an injured hamstring and could lose work to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. The Eagles will throw the ball more, making Sanders a bigger risk.

ROUND 7

Biggest upside: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots (7.08): The sudden retirement of James White has opened up a huge opportunity in the Patriots' backfield, and I think it will benefit Stevenson the most. Not only has he been splitting the offensive drives with Damien Harris in the preseason, but Stevenson also sees more chances as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He has flex appeal.

Biggest risk: Amari Cooper, WR, Browns (7.09): Cooper is likely to be a seventh or eighth-round pick in most drafts, but he could struggle to be worth it … at least until the Browns have Deshaun Watson under center. However, that won't happen until Week 13 (Dec. 4), so Cooper will catch most of his passes from Jacoby Brissett. Coach Kevin Stefanski's offense has not been conducive to wideout success, either.

ROUND 8

Biggest upside: Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans (8.01): Marlon Mack started for the Texans this weekend, while Pierce didn't play a single snap. That indicates that coach Lovie Smith favors the rookie as his Week 1 starter. He's the most talented back on a team that lacks playmakers on the offensive side, and Houston has no reason not to put him in a prominent role. Expect Pierce's fantasy ADP to rise.

Biggest risk: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams (8.03): The ADP information on Fantasy Calculator can be somewhat skewed in favor of quarterbacks, which shows in this case with Stafford. Though he was the QB6 a season ago, the veteran plays at a deep position, allowing clever managers to build that into their strategies. Stafford remains a No. 1 option in fantasy leagues, but not in Round 8.

ROUND 9

Biggest upside: Trey Lance, QB, 49ers (9.04): I love me some Trey Lance. In fact, I think he can be this season's version of Jalen Hurts. A dual-threat quarterback in the creative offense of coach Kyle Shanahan, Lance has a great chance to succeed. The Niners also have a ton of talent around him, including Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, so  Lance emerges has top-10 upside.

Biggest risk: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks (9.11): Admittedly, Lockett's fantasy draft stock has fallen so far that it eliminates some risk in selecting him. That said, the quarterback position in Seattle might be the ugliest in the entire league. Geno Smith and Drew Lock inspire little excitement in the passing game, and neither player figures to make DK Metcalf or Lockett consistent producers for managers.

ROUND 10

Biggest upside: Cole Kmet, TE, Bears (10.09): Kmet, one of my top sleepers among tight ends, is positioned to make a real impact for the Bears and fantasy fans. With very few established options in the Bears' passing game, Kmet should see more than his share of opportunities in the offense. Tight end doesn't have much depth this season, and Kmet could be a nice find in the late rounds of drafts.

Biggest risk: Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins (10.12): Gesicki was one of the top 10 tight ends in fantasy a year ago, but things have changed for 2022. The Dolphins added wide receiver Tyreek Hill to an offense that boasts fellow speedster, Jaylen Waddle. In addition, reports suggest Gesicki will be used less as a receiver and more as a blocker in new coach Mike McDaniel's offense. That's bad news.

• Fantasy Tiers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Draft Strategies: Picks 1-3 | Picks 4-6 | Picks 7-9 | Picks 10-12
• NFL Cast Him Out; He Says That Only Makes Him More Powerful

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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!