Power Rankings: Riviera Should Produce a Big-Name Winner

The course is classic but also nuanced. Here are 10 players our betting model likes this week.

Welcome to Power Rankings, a weekly feature on SI Golf from our partners at KeyCompete. This week the PGA Tour moves to Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational, which is once again hosted by Tiger Woods.

2024 Genesis Invitational Preview

The 2024 Genesis Invitational will once again be staged at one of the most iconic courses on the PGA Tour schedule, Riviera Country Club. It’s known affectionately as "Hogan’s Alley" for Ben Hogan's success here in the late 1940s, and it’s is a par-71 stretching over 7,322 yards of prime California real estate.

Designed by George C. Thomas Jr. and William P. Bell, it opened in 1927 and has since undergone several refinements to maintain its competitive edge. The course is revered for its kikuyu grass fairways and Poa annua greens. Key holes include the risk-reward par-4 10th, offering eagle opportunities while punishing recklessness, and the long par-3 6th, famous for its bunker in the middle of the green. Recent renovations have enhanced Riviera’s classic design while preserving its historic character.

The main storyline this week is the return of Tiger Woods, who has not played an official Tour event since the 2023 Masters. (He kicked off the week by announcing a new apparel deal.) Here are the players our model likes to contend this week:

Xander Schauffele looks like a value in the sports books this week / USA Today

2024 KeyCompete’s Genesis Invitational Power Rankings

(Odds from the SI Sportsbook)

1. Scottie Scheffler (+650): Scheffler's exceptional form and versatility make him the favorite in the books and in our model. His ability to adapt to Riviera's challenges and maintain consistency across all aspects of his game underscores why he's the player to beat.
2. Xander Schauffele (+1600): Schauffele's reputation for clutch performances in big moments lands him here. His balanced game and mental toughness make him formidable.
3. Rory McIlroy (+900): His unparalleled driving distance and accuracy can dominate Riviera's lengthy layout. His experience and prowess in high-stakes tournaments add to the threat level.
4. Viktor Hovland (+1400): Hovland's precise iron play and unwavering positivity, plus his knack for navigating complex courses, makes him a strong contender.
5. Patrick Cantlay (+1600): Cantlay's strategic approach and consistency set him apart. His ability to dissect a course and execute under pressure will be key assets.
6. Justin Thomas (+1600): All-around excellence paired with competitive drive and scoring ability, Thomas has the tools to tackle Riviera's nuances.
7. Max Homa (+1600): A crowd favorite and California native, Homa's affinity for West Coast courses and recent performances catapult him in our rankings. Winner here in 2021.
8. Collin Morikawa (+1800): Morikawa's elite iron accuracy and calm demeanor make him a threat. His precision will be crucial while working through tight fairways and strategic bunkering.
9. Jordan Spieth (+2500): Spieth's creativity and prowess on and around the greens make him a wild card.
10. Sahith Theegala (+3300): Theegala's fearless approach and growing experience prove he's capable of competing with the best. Could surprise. T6 here last year.

About Last Week

The 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open culminated in a gripping playoff between Charley Hoffman and Nick Taylor, which will go down as yet another memorable finish in the tournament's storied legacy.

It was a disappointing week for KeyCompete, as we went 2-3 on matchup bets, but we still enjoy a 28-17 record on the year. We also nailed our pick of Dustin Johnson at the LIV Las Vegas event.