3M Open Betting Preview: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop

Eighteen players made the trip from Royal Liverpool to Minnesota this week, adding intrigue (and betting possibilities) to the field. Here's where to place your money.

Last year the OWGR strength of field for the 3M Open was 113, which then awarded Tony Finau 26 world ranking points for his win. The 2023 strength of field for the 156 players in Blaine, Minnesota, is 229 and will earn the winner 39 world ranking points. For all the drama we have witnessed in professional golf in the last 12 months, this is a great, unintended consequence.

Eighteen players traveled 3,821 miles from Royal Liverpool. Seven of the top 35 in the OWGR are competing alongside 42 of the 50 players ranging from 50 to 100 on the FedEx Cup points list. When the PGA Tour announced last August only the top 70 would make the playoffs nobody paid attention. The Tour knew these final events would suddenly become extremely important. Now we have veteran players who haven’t faced relegation in years fighting for their status.

There’s no better venue for a pressure packed week than TPC Twin Cities. The par 71 is an amateur’s worst nightmare. Fifteen holes have significant water in play and the remaining space is covered by 72 bunkers. The course is a ball strikers paradise. Set at 1,000 feet above sea level, the 7,431-yard layout will play shorter than the card. Elevation adds about two percent of extra carry to your ball flight.

Temperatures in Minnesota are expected to reach the mid-90s and there’s a little rain in the forecast for Thursday night. The hot humid air will also cause the ball to carry another 2%. Add 4% carry and that 7,400 just got reduced by about 300 yards. This is why players hit five percent more than the Tour average of GIRs at TPC Twin Cities. The average winning scores over all four editions is 18 under par. To reach the top 65 and ties and play the weekend you will need birdies.

Ball strikers create many scoring chances. Great putters can only capitalize on the birdie opportunities they have. To win the 3M, you’ll need as many birdie putts as possible. Conversely, to keep up one cannot just rely on just his putter. Tony Finau won a year ago by gaining +16.5 strokes against the field from T2G. He gained +0.8 strokes with his putter. Straight flushers will always have an edge over a player who can only putt and chip at a place like TPC Twin Cities.

TPC Twin Cities has three par 5s with an average birdie rate over 40%. Seven of the par 4s measure under 450 yards. One out of every five approach shots are in between 175 and 200 yards. For most players in this field (at elevation), that is a 7- or 8-iron. To separate from the rest of your competitors, you must lead the field in proximity to the hole with your mid-irons.

Strokes gained ball striking is a combined stat measuring both off the tee and approach play. We want the best in this category who have shown a recent flair with the flatstick. TPC Twin Cities is the third most penal course (of 46) on Tour. Avoiding bogey and double bogey is essential to winning a piece of the $7.8 million dollar purse ($1.404 million dollars for first).

One hundred points separate player 60 from player 80 on the FedEx Cup points list. As I alluded to in the opening, nearly half of this field is either trying to get in the playoffs or attempting to move closer inside the top 50 or top 30. Each stage brings more value to your season. Fifty-five players who would have qualified in previous years will have to fight this fall to get back on the PGA Tour. That’s an extra level of motivation we will see throughout the 3M and next week.

Win: Lucas Glover

Glover has four wins on the PGA Tour including the 2009 U.S. Open. Glover has always been a straight flusher of the golf ball. He leads the field in Minnesota for strokes gained ball striking (SG:BS), proximity to the hole, opportunities gained, and strokes gained approach (SG:APP). In his last three starts, Lucas has finished 4-6-5. A notoriously bad putter, Glover has gained positively with his flatstick over his last five starts, a feat seldom witnessed throughout his 500+ start PGA TOUR career. Take Lucas Glover (+4000 SI Sportsbook) to win the 3M Open.

Place: Sepp Straka

Straka is another fabulous ball striker who has a hot putter. The runner-up at the Open Championship also won the John Deere Classic in mid-July with a final round 62. TPC Twin Cities has trouble everywhere much like PGA National’s Champion Course (Honda Classic). Straka won there by keeping his ball safe and converting on the greens. In his last five starts, he is gaining an average of +5.5 strokes total against the field. That form will keep in him contention against the best at the 3M. Take Sepp Straka to finish Top 20 (+130 SI Sportsbook).

Show: Cameron Young

The defending champion Tony Finau has missed three of his last five cuts and has not contended since winning in Mexico. Cameron Young led the Open Championship field in SG:T2G, SG:OTT, and SG:APP. His brilliant ball striking makes him the odds on favorite and Finau hasn’t finished a tournament since June. Take Cameron Young over Tony Finau H2H (-110 betPARX).

Select Odds to Win at the SI Sportsbook

Sungjae Im: +1400

Cameron Young: +1400

Tony Finau: +1400

Hideki Matsuyama: +1600

Ludvig Aberg: +2200

Sepp Straka: +2500

Justin Thomas: +2500

Aaron Rai: +3500

Lucas Glover: +4000

Cameron Champ: +6600

Matt Kuchar: +8000

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