Re-Ranking Trevor Bauer's Top Landing Spots

With spring training around the corner, let's reset the market for the best pitcher still available.

It was two years ago when Trevor Bauer told Sports Illustrated that he would never sign a multi-year contract. If he went back on his word, he said he’d allow his friend to shoot him in the balls with a paintball gun. He also said he’d pitch every four days and, because of his perfect pitching mechanics, he would never get hurt. So began the sweepstakes for baseball’s iconoclastic, cocksure right-hander.

Two teams, two seasons and one Cy Young award later, Bauer has not fundamentally altered the fabric of MLB free agency. He has since said he’d consider signing long-term deals, and it’s become less likely that whatever contract he gets will exceed Gerrit Cole’s record $36 million average annual value.

Even so, there are plenty of teams still looking to add starting pitching, and Bauer is by far the best available. Let’s take a fresh look at Bauer's top suitors as the offseason nears its end.

New York Mets

With new owner Steve Cohen in the fold, the Mets should be the clear frontrunners to sign Bauer. Last week, New York reportedly offered Bauer a short-term deal, for three or four years and less than Cole’s average annual value. They also traded left-hander Steven Matz to the Blue Jays, which shed some salary and opened up a spot in the rotation for Bauer. According to Spotrac, New York has about $27.5 million in luxury tax space before reaching the tax threshold, though Cohen is not against exceeding it for the right player.

The need for Bauer is obvious, even after the Mets added right-hander Carlos Carrasco—Bauer’s former rotation mate—from Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor trade. Noah Syndergaard will not be ready to begin the season after having Tommy John surgery last March. With Bauer, the Opening Day rotation could look something like this:

1. Jacob deGrom, RHP

2. Trevor Bauer, RHP

3. Carlos Carrasco, RHP

4. Marcus Stroman, RHP

5. David Peterson, LHP

Peterson, their first-round pick in 2017, had a strong rookie season last year (3.44 ERA in 49 2/3 innings). However, he’s never thrown more than 116 innings in a season at any professional level. It would be unreasonable to assume him, along with Syndergaard, could shoulder a full-season workload. Adding Bauer, who wants to start every fourth day, could help ease the burden.

What could give the Mets—and teams around baseball—pause is Bauer's actions off the field. In 2019 a Texas State University woman accused the pitcher of harassing her on Twitter. This offseason the Mets fired general manager Jared Porter after ESPN reported he sent many explicit, unsolicited texts to a female reporter. The team is also caught in the wake of former manager Mickey Callaway's lewd behavior around women in baseball, reported in great detail by The Athletic earlier this week.

Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Blue Jays

After signing George Springer, Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro told reporters the "bulk of our heavy lifting is done,” an indication that perhaps they would not sign Bauer. Yet they still need more starting pitching, and they have the payroll flexibility to get him.

Following Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Toronto rotation is unreliable. Robbie Ray is erratic despite his electric stuff. No. 1 prospect Nate Pearson’s contributions could be limited. Tanner Roark is the pitching equivalent of unflavored oatmeal served cold, and Matz is a more volatile version of Ray.

With Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Gurrerro Jr. all making relative pennies, now is the time for the Blue Jays to spend and surround them with talented veterans. That’s why they signed Springer, Marcus Semien to play second base and closer Kirby Yates. Getting Bauer gives them two of the game’s top pitchers (Ryu being the other) to go along with their playoff-caliber lineup.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers don’t necessarily need another starting pitcher, and they certainly don’t want to get locked into a long-term deal with Bauer. But, if he wants to adhere to his initial vow to sign only one-year deals, he could be a perfect fit for the Dodgers as they look to be the first repeat World Series champion in more than 20 years.

Los Angeles is projected to have the highest payroll in 2021, at more than $205 million, according to Spotrac. To sign Bauer, the Dodgers would have to blow past the $210 million competitive balance tax threshold. A 20% tax on whatever they spend beyond the threshold is a small price to pay for a second consecutive World Series title. The real financial log jam will come next offseason, when Clayton Kershaw and Corey Seager become free agents and Cody Bellinger is due a significant raise in his third year of arbitration eligibility.

Milwaukee Brewers

Now that the Cardinals traded for Nolan Arenado, the NL Central is no longer a winnable division through inaction. The Brewers need to make a move to ensure their fourth straight postseason appearance, and signing Bauer would be the best way to keep stride with St. Louis.

Milwaukee’s rotation already features Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, two of the best and most underrated starters in baseball. Adding Bauer to that group would give the Brewers a trio of electric right-handers. They also have Josh Hader and Devin Williams anchoring the backend of their bullpen, and a lineup that includes Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Keston Hiura, who is expected to move over to first base with new addition Kolten Wong playing second.

The Brewers, with plenty of payroll room under the luxury tax, remain longshots to sign Bauer. But doing so is the best way to keep their playoff hopes alive.