MLB Predictions for MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards

Shohei Ohtani goes for back-to-back AL MVPs, but will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or teammate Mike Trout win it instead? Our baseball writers make their picks for each league’s big three awards.

One day away from the start of the season, it’s time to celebrate all that’s great in our game. There’s no better way to do that than to highlight some of MLB’s best talents with our awards predictions.

Does Shohei Ohtani’s two-way talent automatically earn him his second consecutive MVP award, so long as he performs? Is this the year Juan Soto finally wins it in the NL? Will Gerrit Cole and Walker Buehler win Cy Young awards?

Then there’s the AL Rookie of the Year race between Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodríguez. Both have made their respective Opening Day rosters. Which one takes it home? Will it be Seiya Suzuki or Oneil Cruz in the NL?

Cubs rookie right fielder Suzuki was a four-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner in Japan :: Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo

We asked the Sports Illustrated MLB writers to make their picks for the big three year end awards. Here’s what they had to say:

Tom Verducci

AL MVP: Luis Robert, CF, White Sox

A 30–30 player waiting to happen, he can do it all. None of the past 26 full-season MVPs were 30 or older on Opening Day. The streak continues.

NL MVP: Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers

Just what L.A. needs: another MVP. Not a bad way to head into free agency.

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees

Long overdue for a Cy, Cole gets one—with a better defensive team behind him.

NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler, SP, Dodgers

He is 40–13 in his career, is 27 years old and is coming off a 207-inning season in which he started 33 times and lost four times. The time is now.

Buehler has a 2.82 ERA across 94 starts since the start of 2018 :: Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports

AL Rookie of the Year: Julio Rodríguez, CF, Mariners

This multitalented outfielder wins out in an especially deep AL rookie class (Spencer Torkelson, Adley Rutschman, Bobby Witt Jr., etc.)

NL Rookie of the Year: Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates

A 6'7“ shortstop with 20-homer pop doesn’t come around very often.

Stephanie Apstein

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays

If Shohei Ohtani stays healthy and does anything close to what he did last year, I think this award is probably his. But it will be a lot easier for Guerrero to repeat his performance than for Ohtani to repeat his.

NL MVP: Juan Soto, RF, Nationals

If there’s a pitcher comfortable facing him, give that guy the MVP. Until then, it’s Soto.

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees

I think Cole will throw 200 innings this year, and I think that will put him on a very short list.

NL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers

He strikes everybody out and he gets to play in the NL Central.

AL Rookie of the Year: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals

The kid can flat-out hit, and he’ll get a lot of chances with the Royals.

Witt Jr. is the consensus top prospect in all of baseball entering this season. Will he be the top rookie in 2022? :: Charlie Riedel/AP Photo

NL Rookie of the Year: Seiya Suzuki, RF, Cubs

I’m rooting for this because I bet his acceptance speech will be hilarious. He’s a star and seems to have a magnetic personality.

Emma Baccellieri

AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Angels

The club of players who have won back-to-back MVPs is small. The only additions in the last two decades have been Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. But if there's anyone who seems like he should be able to crack it now—c'mon, of course it’s Ohtani. (Apologies to Vlad Guerrero, Jr., who should at the very least make the race interesting for a second consecutive year.)

NL MVP: Juan Soto, RF, Nationals

Yes, the Nationals should be absolutely dreadful this year, which does not make an award campaign easy. But Soto is just that good. Given how impressive his performance has been over the last two years, MVP feels almost overdue for him—which is a wild thing to say about a 23-year-old. But, hey, Soto’s a wild player.

Soto is the best hitter in baseball. He deserves an MVP, even if the Nationals are going to be bad :: Nick Wass/AP Photo

AL Cy Young: Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox

Giolito’s performance over the last three seasons has been nothing short of remarkable, and it feels like it could be time for a career year. His 2021 laid a great foundation: His changeup remains among the very best in the game, and he tweaked his slider to make it more effective and began using it more, too. (Last year was the first time the slider represented more than 20% of his pitches.) With good health and some good luck, a Cy Young feels completely in reach for Giolito.

NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler, SP, Dodgers

Buehler is coming off a career year—brought about partially by becoming less reliant on his four-seamer and working more on his secondary pitches—and if he can stay healthy to repeat much of what he did in 2021, he seems like a fairy safe bet for the Cy.

AL Rookie of the Year: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals

This might be the most fun award race of all: Bobby Witt Jr. or Julio Rodríguez? Both will hopefully be able to lay claim to the award when all is said and done; it truly feels close to a toss-up. In that case, given how close it might be, I’ll give the edge to Witt, a shortstop.

NL Rookie of the Year: Seiya Suzuki, RF, Cubs

Suzuki garnered plenty of honors back in Japan—he was a four-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner in NPB—and this seems like a perfect opportunity to pick up his first in MLB (especially if the Pirates wait much longer to call up Oneil Cruz).

BETTING: MLB American League MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Future Odds

Will Laws

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays

Before last season, four of the last six players to match Guerrero Jr.’s OPS+ (169) in as many plate appearances (698) had won MVP. The only thing that prevented Guerrero from becoming the second-youngest MVP in league history (behind only Vida Blue 50 years prior in 1971) was unprecedented two-way play from Shohei Ohtani. I don’t think lightning will strike twice in Anaheim this season (literally or figuratively), but Vladdy will probably keep on raking north of the border—this time perhaps for a division champion team, which would only help his cause.

NL MVP: Juan Soto, RF, Nationals

During last season’s second half, most of which Soto played in a trade-depleted lineup with little protection, he slashed .348/.525/.639, leading MLB in batting average and on-base percentage while ranking third in slugging percentage behind NL MVP Bryce Harper and Joey Votto. Washington didn’t do much this offseason, but it did sign Nelson Cruz to hit behind Soto. That could be the last piece needed to help the 23-year-old win his first MVP after finishing as runner-up last year.

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees

Last year’s Cy Young runner-up campaign marked Cole’s fourth consecutive (and fifth overall) top-five finish in the award’s voting. With an improved defense behind him in the Bronx, I think this is the year he brings home the hardware.

NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies

I’m taking last year’s Cy Young runner-up in the NL, too. Zack Wheeler led the NL in innings pitched, strikeouts and WAR (yes, hitters included) last year, but Corbin Burnes won the award by the thinnest margin in NL Cy Young voting history on a quality-over-quantity argument. I don’t think Burnes will be quite as good this time, partially because our own Tom Verducci found his spin rate dramatically decreased after last summer’s sticky stuff crackdown. Burnes was still awesome after that edge was taken away, but not historically good like he was early on. Meanwhile, we have a pretty large sample size showing that Wheeler has unlocked another level since leaving New York.

The Phillies’ defense won’t do Wheeler any favors, but he has the strikeout stuff and endurance to dominate either way :: Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports

AL Rookie of the Year: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals

I almost picked Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez to complement my optimism on the Mariners’ playoff chances but couldn’t make the leap given his complete lack of experience above Double A. I’ll go chalk here with MLBPipeline’s No. 1 prospect In Bobby Witt Jr., who nearly had a 30–30 season in a 2021 campaign split between Double A and Triple A, where he was equally awesome at the plate regardless of the level of competition.

NL Rookie of the Year: Joey Bart, C, Giants

If Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki adapts slowly to the majors after coming over from Japan, Bart will have a significant advantage in the ROY race as the only other NL rookie set to start in the field from day one. The former No. 2 overall pick has been ripping the cover off the ball in spring training against quality competition and will receive a lot of credit from voters if he can help maintain the success of San Francisco’s pitching staff following Buster Posey’s retirement.

Matt Martell

AL MVP: Mike Trout, CF, Angels

Remember him? Trout remains the best player in baseball, and if the Angels get into the playoffs (which, if you read our season predictions, you know I’m going all in on the Halos), it’ll be because Trout played a full season. And when Trout plays a full season, he has an MVP-worthy year. If Shohei Ohtani repeats what he did last year, he’ll certainly have a case for winning the award again, but I’m convinced this is Trout’s year to show why he’s still the best in the game.

Also, I’d like to point out that I picked Gleyber Torres to win AL MVP in 2020 and 2021. As much as I would love to triple down on the Yankees’ second baseman, my better judgment tells me to pick Trout, Ohtani or anybody else. Naturally, that means Torres will put it all together and win MVP this year. Alas.

NL MVP: Juan Soto, RF, Nationals

I really wanted to pick someone from a winning team, but nobody in the National League is going to come close to Soto this year. I won’t overthink this. The second coming of Ted Williams deserves an MVP.

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees

He’s too good not to have a Cy Young yet. If he silences the potent AL East lineups, that will be more than enough to win the award.

NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies

Wheeler had a strong case for the award last year. One of the league’s remaining workhorses, he has the strikeout stuff to perform well in spite of the horrific Phillies defense.

AL Rookie of the Year: Julio Rodríguez, CF, Mariners

You ready for the J-Rod show? Rodríguez is going to be a superstar. He’s a five-tool player with an 80-grade personality. The Mariners are going to be a playoff team in large part because of J-Rod. Bobby Witt Jr. is going to make this a compelling race, but in the end, J-Rod’s star will shine so bright that none of us will be able to look away.

Rodríguez was born to be a superstar. He could be the most dynamic Mariners player since Ken Griffey Jr :: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

NL Rookie of the Year: Seiya Suzuki, RF, Cubs

Suzuki is a dynamic offensive player. He can hit for average and power, has a good eye and the speed to steal 10–15 bags. I would’ve picked Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz to win the award, but I’m giving the edge to Suzuki because he’ll be on the Opening Day roster and have at least few extra weeks to get a leg up in the race.

Nick Selbe

AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Angels

Perhaps there will come a day when voter fatigue sets in and the world offers a collective yawn at seeing a 6'4" superhuman throw 100 mph fastballs, run like a gazelle and bash pitches into the sun. I don’t think that day has come yet.

Ohtani provides so much value as a two-way sensation that he has a good chance to join that rare club of players to win back-to-back MVPs :: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

NL MVP: Juan Soto, RF, Nationals

Soto will get the Mike Trout treatment in 2022, shining on a team with very little hope for success. The patient hitting savant will see even fewer good pitches to hit anchoring what should be a pretty lousy Washington lineup, and he could put up a downright Bondsian on-base percentage. Voters have shown themselves to be much more willing to overlook poor team performance when filling out ballots for this award. Here’s betting that Soto’s individual brilliance will shine through on what will likely be a last-place team.

AL Cy Young: Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox

The AL field of starting pitchers doesn’t appear to be as stacked as in the NL. Giolito was my pick last year, and I’ll run it back again in 2022. A rough first few outings inflated his numbers out of the gate in 2021, though the righthander settled in to post a 3.17 ERA with 168 strikeouts in 26 starts since the beginning of May. There are few workhorses left in the modern era of pitching staff management, and Giolito’s expected high volume of innings should make him a Cy Young frontrunner.

NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler, SP, Dodgers

There’s a slight chance of vote-splitting among the Dodgers for major awards, particularly in the MVP race with Trea Turner, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. That same risk exists here with Buehler and Julio Urías, though I like Buehler’s chances to overcome that and emerge from the pack. The righthander has been consistently dominant for years, with a 2.82 ERA across 94 starts since the start of 2018. He has two top-10 finishes in the Cy Young voting during that stretch, and this is the year he brings home the hardware. 

AL Rookie of the Year: Julio Rodríguez, CF, Mariners

There’s an embarrassing wave of young talent expected to arrive in MLB this year, making this a particularly difficult award to predict. I’ll go with Rodríguez though, who thankfully won’t be subject to any service time manipulation and will be starting for Seattle on Opening Day. The 6'3" outfielder hit .347/.441/.560 across Double A and Triple A last season, striking out just 18.0% of the time against Triple A pitching. He looks poised for stardom.

NL Rookie of the Year: Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates

Is the world ready to watch a 6'7" shortstop? No matter how well he plays, Cruz is going to stand out, but here’s betting that he’ll take the league by storm in his rookie campaign. The 23-year-old hit .310/.375/.594 across Double A and Triple A last year, and has 20-20 potential if he can make somewhat consistent contact against big-league pitching.

BETTING: MLB National League Player Prop Bets: MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year

Michael Shapiro

AL MVP: Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox

Devers’s WAR totals won’t get the same bump as Byron Buxton and Shohei Ohtani, though he could very well establish himself as the American League’s top hitter by season’s end. He’s arguably the favorite for the RBI crown in a stacked lineup, and he is a threat for both 40 doubles and 40 homers. Devers is just 25 with improving walk and strikeout rates. Don’t be shocked if he receives both the MVP and a $300 million extension in 2022.

NL MVP: Matt Olson, 1B, Braves

The Freeman-for-Olson effective swap is understandably not a popular move, but Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos may have made quite the shrewd decision. Olson just turned 28 and will earn a reasonable $22 million each year from 2024 to ’29. He posted an .896 OPS in ’19 and a .911 mark last season, which included a career-low 16.8% strikeout rate. Olson finished No. 8 in the AL MVP vote last year playing in Oakland. He could secure the award if he powers the defending champions to another NL East title.

Olson has the tall task of taking over for franchise icon Freddie Freeman. If he lives up to his lofty expectations, he should get considerable MVP support this year :: Steve Helber/AP Photo

AL Cy Young: Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox

Giolito is one of the increasingly few pitchers who could sniff 200 innings, and he should rack up wins and strikeouts with the AL Central favorite. With no real frontrunner outside of Gerrit Cole, Chicago’s ace is a sensible choice.

NL Cy Young: Logan Webb, SP, Giants

Webb’s changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball, and his second-half surge was no fluke. San Francisco will likely once again platoon its way to around 90 wins, and paired with a pitcher-friendly park, Webb is a fair bet to finish in the top-10 in wins, ERA and strikeouts.

AL Rookie of the Year: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals

This is shaping up to be one of the more impressive rookie classes in recent memory, and we could see a battle down the stretch between Witt and Mariners star prospect Julio Rodríguez. I’m buying the hype on Witt, who should be a major spark in a potential sneaky playoff candidate.

NL Rookie of the Year: Seiya Suzuki, RF, Cubs

Suzuki’s eye at the plate and contact skills should make him a consistent run producer in Chicago, and there’s the upside to clear 20 homers and 10 steals. The National League is lagging in Rookie of the Year candidates compared to the AL phenoms. Suzuki is the rightful favorite entering Opening Day.