Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani MVP Race Is on a Historic Track

Judge could become the first player to hit 60 home runs since PED testing began in 2003. Meanwhile, Ohtani is putting up big numbers at the plate and pitching like a Cy Young winner, too.

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Ted Williams lost the MVP to Joe DiMaggio in 1941 despite hitting .406 and leading the league in each slash category. Mickey Mantle crushed Roger Maris in WAR and OPS in 1961 but Maris rode his 61 homers to a narrow win in the MVP voting. Mike Trout led the league in WAR in 2012 but lost the MVP to Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera.

A few MVP debates outlive the voting itself, especially among two superlative candidates. But the one unfolding now in the American League between Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani is unlike anything seen before. It is on track to become one of the greatest MVP debates of all time.

Will Judge reach the 60-homer mark this season? :: Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports

Who do you have, Judge or Ohtani?

Judge leads the league in runs, home runs and total bases while playing half his games in center field, where at 6'7", 282 pounds he is the biggest center fielder ever. With 30 homers, he could become the first player to hit 60 homers since steroid testing began in 2003.

Ohtani is on pace for 35 homers, 101 RBIs and 19 stolen bases … while pitching like the Cy Young winner the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes was last year:

	K/9	WHIP	ERA
Burnes 2021	12.6	0.940	2.43
Ohtani 2022	12.3	0.988	2.44

Your choice is between a center fielder chasing 60 home runs for a team chasing a record 117 wins, or a version of Burnes on the mound who also knocks in a hundred runs for a team that’s out of an expanded playoff picture.

Before you answer, two items of business to consider:

1. We have a long way to go. The grind of the second half will test both players. The Yankees will need to save Judge’s legs occasionally. (He sat out a game in Boston on Thursday because of general soreness.) Ohtani hit .231 last September.

2. Ohtani just played the greatest month of baseball ever. From June 9 through July 9, Ohtani slashed .301/.396/.624 with eight homers and 22 RBIs in 26 games and on the mound went 4–0 with a 0.00 ERA, 40 strikeouts and seven walks in 26 2/3 innings. The rest of the woebegone team went 7–17 in that month, which is why almost nobody noticed.

Ohtani’s June numbers were unprecedented :: Jim Rassol/USA TODAY Sports

Last year Ohtani won the vote easily over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays. But Guerrero played a corner infield position for a non-playoff team. It’s a closer debate this year because Judge is the best player on the best team chasing historical numbers.

If bWAR is your thing, Ohtani, because of his two-way prowess, is your guy. He leads Judge 4.3 to 3.8. Judge also trails Yordan Alvarez and Rafael Devers.

And if you argue Ohtani’s two-way talent gives him an advantage every year in MVP voting … well, yes! That’s not a bug. That’s a feature. Watching someone juggling chainsaws is no less impressive when you see it a second or third time. There is nothing wrong with him winning the MVP every year not just for being a two-way player but for being an elite two-way player. There was nobody like Wilt Chamberlain in the mid-1960s NBA, and he won three straight MVPs with no problem.

Ohtani might drive in more runs this year than he did last year. (He has driven in as many runners from bases as Judge: 35. Judge has batted with 32% more runners than Ohtani, 233–177). But the big difference this year is Ohtani’s pitching. He is even better this year. He is on track to pitch 151 innings with 12.2 strikeouts per nine and a WHIP less than one. Only five pitchers have ever done that: Chris Sale (2017 and ’18), Max Scherzer (’18), Justin Verlander (’18), Gerrit Cole (’19) and Burnes (’21).

Who do you have, Ohtani or Judge? We’re talking about two of the biggest drawing cards in the game. To add to the narrative, each one is on the doorstep of enormous riches. Judge is eligible for free agency after this season. Ohtani is set to leapfrog him after next season.

If Ohtani keeps thriving at the mound and at the plate, Judge is going to have a difficult time closing the WAR gap. If the Angels keep sinking, though, Judge retains the advantage of putting up his huge numbers in a more meaningful context. The debate is far from settled. It’s just getting started.

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