Hitting in Baseball Is at a Low Point, But There Are Reasons for Optimism

In this week’s Five-Tool Newsletter, we look at the most notable trend of the season’s first half: the lack of offense. Plus, Matt Carpenter’s revival, the legacy of “A League of Their Own” and the surging Orioles.

The most notable league-wide trend so far this year is the lack of offense. Yes, hitting has picked up some since the first month, when the league batting average was a putrid .231. But that was expected to happen as the weather got warmer. For the most part, though, things are looking pretty bleak for those of you who want your baseball to come with a lot of offense.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports

The league batting average is .242, which would be the lowest single-season mark since 1967 (also .242), and the fourth worst of all time. On-base percentage is the worst it’s been (.312) in 50 years.

Maybe low batting averages and on-base percentages aren’t all that surprising to you. After all, teams are now built around home runs, slugging percentage and that all-or-nothing approach, right? Well, that approach isn’t exactly working anymore.

This year, we’re seeing an average of 2.15 home runs per game, which is the fewest since 2015, and much lower than the 2.45 per game last season and a drastic decline from the all-time high of 2.79 from ‘19. The league slugging percentage of .395 is the worst it’s been since ‘14, when it was .386. Teams are averaging 4.33 runs per game this season, down from 4.53 per game last year and the fewest since ‘12.

O.K., you get the idea. That said, just because hitting, slugging and scoring is down doesn’t mean the game is getting worse. In fact, there are a few reasons to be optimistic about the game based on what’s happened this season. If you want action and movement, we’re seeing more of it this season! And I don’t just mean the amount of shifting that fielders are doing between plate appearances. Take a look at this:

Stats Per Game, By Season

via Baseball Reference

So, this year, on a per game rate, there are more stolen bases, more balls in play and fewer strikeouts than there have been in a season since 2017. There are more stolen-base attempts per game this year and nine-inning games are shorter than there have been since ‘18. Walks are down significantly.

Assuming these trends hold up for the remainder of this season and in future years, this bodes well for the long-term entertainment value of the game.

Have any questions for our team? Send a note to mlb@si.com.

1. THE OPENER

“A month before he became a multiposition sensation for the Yankees, Matt Carpenter planned his retirement tour.”

That’s how Stephanie Apstein begins her column from this morning about how Carpenter became a Yankee and how he found his power stroke again. Her story is full of great nuggets, but the exchange between Carpenter and New York hitting coach Dillon Lawson really stands out.

You can read Stephanie’s entire piece below:

‘I’m About to Get Hot’: Inside Matt Carpenter’s Revival With the Yankees by Stephanie Apstein

Typically, I don’t share two stories in this section of the newsletter, but today I wanted to give a special shoutout to Emma Baccellieri’s Daily Cover story about the legacy of A League of Their Own, which first hit theaters 30 years ago.

Emma traveled to Beyer Stadium, home of the real life Rockford Peaches, at the beginning of the month, and spoke with local fans of the movie and those who care so much about it that they made the pilgrimage to this Illinois city to commemorate the occasion.

You can read her entire feature below:

‘A League of Their Own’ Endures Because It’s Personal by Emma Baccellieri

Illustration by Felipe Flores

This piece is part of SI’s annual “Where Are They Now?” Series, and you can check out the rest of those stories here.

2. ICYMI

Let’s run through some of our other great SI baseball stories from this week.

Unvaccinated Royals Lay Bare Their Lack of Commitment by Stephanie Apstein
Ten Kansas City players will miss a series in Toronto due to their unwillingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19. Their ignorance is hurting themselves and their team.

The Rays Are Falling Apart by Nick Selbe
Injuries are testing Tampa Bay’s depth. Can the club hang on in a crowded wild-card race?

American League MVP Race Is on a Historic Track by Tom Verducci
Aaron Judge could become the first player to hit 60 home runs since PED testing began in 2003. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani is putting up big numbers at the plate and pitching like a Cy Young winner, too.

The Minor League Career That Inspired ‘Bull Durham’ by Ron Shelton
In an excerpt from his new book, writer and director Ron Shelton recounts his own time on the farm—where some familiar events occurred.

3. WORTH NOTING from Stephanie Apstein

On Wednesday, the Angels sent the following lineup to face the Orioles:

1. Taylor Ward RF
2. Mike Trout CF
3. Shohei Ohtani DH
5. Max Stassi C
5. Luis Rengifo SS
6. Jonathan Villar 3B
7. Michael Stefanic 2B
8. David MacKinnon 1B
9. Monte Harrison LF

Those top three had a combined OPS of .831; the bottom six of .609. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello and Jason Bernard crunched the numbers and determined: This is the top-heaviest AL lineup of all time, and arguably the most top-heavy overall. (The only one ahead of it, from the 1997 Astros, came when Houston was in the NL and had a pitcher hitting ninth, which doesn’t quite seem fair.) But you can’t predict baseball: The top three Angels combined to go 1-for-12 that night, while the bottom six went 7-for-22 with two walks. Maybe you could have predicted this, though: Los Angeles lost.

4. W2W4 from Nick Selbe

What is there to spotlight at a time like this other than the streaking Orioles? Baltimore’s 10-game winning streak has transformed the 2022 campaign from just another in a long rebuild to a surprising playoff run. The Orioles will look to continue their winning ways with three games in Tampa before the All-Star break. At this rate, the days off are seemingly the only thing that can throw the Birds off their stride.

Baltimore will hand the ball to Tyler Wells to start the series, and the lefthander has been the team’s unexpected ace through the first half. After pitching 57 innings as a rookie for the O’s last season—all in relief—Wells has thrived by keeping hitters off balance in ’22 with an effective mix of offspeed pitches. The real star of the show, though, has been the Orioles’ bullpen, which has the fifth-best ERA (3.19) and second-highest Win Probability Added (4.63) in the majors. Those arms likely were once thought to be useful trade chips come the deadline, but now perhaps they’ll be the ones who carry Baltimore to the postseason.

5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri

Continuing the Orioles’ theme from above: When the MLB draft begins on Sunday, Baltimore will have the number one pick for the second time in the last three years. It’s hard to think of a more extreme contrast than what you have between the requirement for two top draft picks in three seasons (very, very bad) to what the team has done over the last month (very, very good). It’s an unexpected twist but a happy one: Who would have thought the Orioles might be above .500 when they make this pick?

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox next Friday. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at mlb@si.com.