Three Things That Will Decide the Blue Jays–Mariners Wild-Card Series

The American League’s top two wild-card teams are set to face off in a series that could feature a whole lot of dingers.

The last postseason game to feature the Mariners took place Oct. 22, 2001. Julio Rodríguez was nearly 10 months old; the first-generation iPod was a day away from being released; and the U.S. version of Survivor had just kicked off its third season. Needless to say, a lot has changed since then (with the exception of Survivor, which is still going strong).

The Blue Jays are making their fourth postseason appearance in eight years, but before that, they had not made the playoffs since winning back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and ’93. So these are two franchises that know a thing or two about droughts. With the two sides set to square off in the best-of-three wild-card series in Toronto, let’s take a peek at the three things that will decide what should be an entertaining series.

1. Can Seattle trust its starting pitchers?

Rookie righthander George Kirby has had an excellent debut season (8–5, 3.39 ERA in 25 starts), but he has struggled down the stretch.  :: Alex Gallardo/AP

The Mariners needed to bolster their starting rotation at the deadline, and did so in a massive way by swinging a trade for Luis Castillo. While the former Reds ace has impressed since the move, other key members of the rotation have shown signs of wear.

Rookie George Kirby has a 5.89 ERA in his last four starts, and his fastball velocity was down from 95.3 mph to 93.8 mph in his most recent start Oct. 3. Robbie Ray, who won the AL Cy Young Award with the Blue Jays last year, has given up eight home runs across 27⅓ innings in his last five games. The lefty was effective in his one start against his former team back on July 9, though, allowing one run with six strikeouts over six innings. In his lone outing vs. Toronto on July 8, Kirby gave up two runs on 10 hits and was removed in the fifth inning.

Seattle’s bullpen has been reliable all year, with the sixth-best ERA (3.34) and fourth-lowest walk rate (3.01 BB/9) in the majors. The group threw the fourth-fewest innings among relief corps, though, and manager Scott Servais might have to lean on those arms more if any of his starters falter early.

2. Which team can keep the ball in the yard more often?

Among the 12 playoff teams, no pitching staffs have given up home runs at a higher rate than these two. The Mariners allow 1.16 home runs per nine innings, while Toronto comes in at a 1.13 HR/9 clip. Both rank in the bottom five of the American League, and with each offense ranking in the top 10 in the majors in home runs, we could be in store for some high-scoring games.

The pitcher from each side to keep an eye on in this regard is the aforementioned Ray from Seattle and Toronto’s Kevin Gausman. Going back to his days in Baltimore, Gausman was always a talented arm who was done in too frequently by the long ball. He averaged 1.26 HR/9 from 2013 to ’19 but has seen that number decrease in each of the past three seasons, down to 0.77 HR/9 this year.

But old habits have started to creep up at the wrong time, with the righthander surrendering eight homers in his last seven starts across 40⅓ innings (1.79 HR/9). The good news is he has racked up 50 strikeouts to just six walks during that stretch, so he’s still largely been effective despite the home runs. Moreover, because he doesn’t walk many people, he has mostly limited the damage when he does give up dingers; five of those eight homers came with nobody on base.

3. Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. get hot at the right time?

Guerrero might not have had as strong a season as he did a year ago, but he still smacked 32 home runs with 97 RBIs and a 132 OPS+ :: Matt Slocum/AP

Guerrero’s first taste of postseason baseball was brief and uneventful, with the then 21-year-old going 1-for-7 in the 2020 wild-card round as Toronto was swept by Tampa Bay. Guerrero has not had the same type of season as his MVP runner-up showing from ’21 and has seen his bat go relatively quiet since the start of September: .680 OPS with just five homers in 32 games.

If there’s one thing Guerrero hasn’t struggled with this season, though, it’s hunting fastballs. He’s put up a .556 slugging percentage and .386 wOBA on heaters this season, whiffing a mere 17% of the time (he swings and misses at least 30% of the time against offspeed pitches and breaking balls). Meanwhile, two of Seattle’s top starters—Castillo and Kirby—possess four-seam fastballs that rank in the top 10 in terms of run value, so don’t expect them to throw only junk to Vladdy, even though he crushes the heat. Guerrero homered twice with three walks and just three strikeouts in his last five games, so perhaps he’s rounding into form when his team needs him most.